205
FXUS61 KBGM 180539
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1239 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
10 PM UPDATE: DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA UNTIL 8AM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP
TO ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN DENSE FOG.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WED NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2) ANOTHER WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
3) WE ARE CLOSELY WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
FROM A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
4) THE THREAT OF ICE JAMS INCREASES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FAVORABLE SETUP WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A BROAD WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST US LIFTS A CONSIDERABLY
WARMER AIRMASS NORTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL NY. UPPER
LEVEL FORCING SUPPORTED BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE 500MB TROUGH AND MUCH
OF THE AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT JET STREAK
IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LARGE SCALE LIFT
FOR A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A DECENT LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FGEN TO SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF.
THE PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND START AROUND 8-10 AM
WEST AND SW OF THE FINGER LAKES. THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS AREA SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-81 AND OVER MOST OF NE PA.
THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST OCCURS WHEN THIS
PRECIPITATION RUNS INTO THE COLD AIR THAT IS PUSHED UP AGAINST
THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL.
THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT JUST AFTER
NOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH HELPS PULL DOWN COLDER AIR
FROM CANADA AND REINFORCES THE COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHILE
UNDERCUTTING THE WARM AIR ALOFT. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A 6-12 HOUR WINDOW WILL OCCUR
WHERE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE (NORTH OF THIS WARM NOSE OVER
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY) AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
SOUTH IF THE NY THRUWAY TO ROUGHLY THE I-88 CORRIDOR. AREAS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
NY. PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY COULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH
OF THERE WILL LIKELY SEE A WINTRY MIX WITH THE THREAT OF SNOW
AND ICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT WINTRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTERACT WITH A SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR MASS EAST
OF I-81 (IN NY AND NE PA) TO PRODUCE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BUT THE WARM NOSE LOOKS TO BE ABLE TO REACH A
BIT FARTHER NORTH GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN WED.
STRONG FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE AREA OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION. COLD AIR EAST OF I-81 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE THE WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN WED GIVEN
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA AND THE
DECREASED AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER HEADLINES IS POSSIBLE ONCE WE GET CLOSER
TO THIS EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE
LARGER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS S/W WILL TRIGGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT A SECTION OF THE NORTHEAST US LATER SUN
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME REVOLVES AROUND
THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND HOW FAR OFFSHORE IT DEVELOPS.
THE AIRMASS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
ALL SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, BUT IF THE LOW IS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE, THE SNOW WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLES AND A CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF
THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELD, IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS NOT A STRONG
CONSENSUS OF THE MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THE COASTAL LOW. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR RIVER ICE JAMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION,
COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL MELT THE SNOWPACK
INTO THE BASINS, THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIVER ICE TO
BREAK UP AND MOVE DOWN STREAM. TWO TO 5 FOOT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD DISLODGE AND BREAK UP THE RIVER ICE. IF
THE ICE MOVING DOWNSTREAM WERE TO GET CAUGHT IN CERTAIN
CONFLUENCES OF THE RIVER OR NEAR BRIDGES THIS COULD CAUSE ICE
JAMS THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS SPREAD TO EVERY TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN AROUND
MID MORNING, WARM HUMID AIR OVER THE SNOW WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR
VIS AND CIGS GOING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ITH MAY SEE MVFR
AT TIMES FROM 15Z THROUGH 0Z AS EAST WINDS MAY HELP MIX OUT THE
FOG AFTER THE RAIN STARTS. SYR AND RME MAY SEE RAIN MIX TO SNOW
AROUND 18Z AS COLD AIR TRIES TO MOVE BACK IN ONCE THE WARM FRONT
STALLS. COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE CHEMUNG RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH
A SNOW PACK AT ELM MAY KEEP FOG AROUND LONGER THAN FORECAST,
WITH LIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...IFR AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST TERMINALS AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS THU MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON RESTRICTIONS
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE PA
SUNDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-057.
DISCUSSION...BJT/KL
AVIATION...AJG
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