038
FXUS61 KBGM 180634
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
134 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY DECREASED SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS AS CONDITIONS
TREND WARMER. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT, AND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT.
2) ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
3) UPDATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM A COASTAL
LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
4) THE THREAT OF ICE JAMS INCREASES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA TODAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN SKEWING WARMER,
WITH THE GRADIENT OF WINTRY MIX AND SNOWFALL PUSHING NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN SPREADING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING, WITH
MOST AREAS RECEIVING RAIN. AS THE FRONT MEETS COLD AIR IN THE
CATSKILLS AND TOWARDS THE ADIRONDACKS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND WET SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT ACTUAL FREEZING ON CONTACT AS GROUND AND
ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FROM RECENT CONDITIONS.
THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING ICE IN THE
AREAS UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY, PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AS WET SNOW, BUT
COULD SEE SOME WINTRY MIX AT TIMES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR WET SNOW UNTIL 4AM
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT WINTRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTERACT WITH A SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR MASS EAST
OF I-81 TO PRODUCE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY'S SYSTEM, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A MORE PROMINENT WARM NOSE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATION EAST OF I-81.
STRONG FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE AREA OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION. COLD AIR EAST OF I-81 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE THE WINTRY MIX. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR BETTER CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL AMOUNTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER HEADLINES IS POSSIBLE ONCE WE GET CLOSER
TO THIS EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING TRENDS OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
LOW TOO FAR EAST FOR A LOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOWEVER, IT'S
POSSIBLE NE PA COULD BE CLIPPED BY THE NW CORNER OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT WOULDN'T LIKELY PRODUCE MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR RIVER ICE JAMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION,
COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL MELT THE SNOWPACK
INTO THE BASINS, THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIVER ICE TO
BREAK UP AND MOVE DOWN STREAM. TWO TO FIVE FOOT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD DISLODGE AND BREAK UP THE RIVER ICE. IF
THE ICE MOVING DOWNSTREAM WERE TO GET CAUGHT IN CERTAIN
CONFLUENCES OF THE RIVER OR NEAR BRIDGES THIS COULD CAUSE ICE
JAMS THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS SPREAD TO EVERY TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN AROUND
MID MORNING, WARM HUMID AIR OVER THE SNOW WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR
VIS AND CIGS GOING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ITH MAY SEE MVFR
AT TIMES FROM 15Z THROUGH 0Z AS EAST WINDS MAY HELP MIX OUT THE
FOG AFTER THE RAIN STARTS. SYR AND RME MAY SEE RAIN MIX TO SNOW
AROUND 18Z AS COLD AIR TRIES TO MOVE BACK IN ONCE THE WARM FRONT
STALLS. COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE CHEMUNG RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH
A SNOW PACK AT ELM MAY KEEP FOG AROUND LONGER THAN FORECAST,
WITH LIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...IFR AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST TERMINALS AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS THU MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON RESTRICTIONS
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE PA
SUNDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-057.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...AJG
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