629
FXUS61 KBGM 181809
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
109 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY DECREASED SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS AS CONDITIONS
TREND WARMER. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT, AND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT.
2) ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
3) UPDATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM A COASTAL
LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
4) THE THREAT OF ICE JAMS INCREASES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA TODAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN SKEWING WARMER,
WITH THE GRADIENT OF WINTRY MIX AND SNOWFALL PUSHING NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN SPREADING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING, WITH
MOST AREAS RECEIVING RAIN. AS THE FRONT MEETS COLD AIR IN THE
CATSKILLS AND TOWARDS THE ADIRONDACKS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND WET SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT ACTUAL FREEZING ON CONTACT AS GROUND AND
ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FROM RECENT CONDITIONS.
THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING ICE IN THE
AREAS UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY, PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AS WET SNOW, BUT
COULD SEE SOME WINTRY MIX AT TIMES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR WET SNOW UNTIL 4AM
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT WINTRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTERACT WITH A SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR MASS EAST
OF I-81 TO PRODUCE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY'S SYSTEM, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A MORE PROMINENT WARM NOSE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATION EAST OF I-81.
STRONG FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE AREA OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION. COLD AIR EAST OF I-81 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE THE WINTRY MIX. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR BETTER CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL AMOUNTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER HEADLINES IS POSSIBLE ONCE WE GET CLOSER
TO THIS EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING TRENDS OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
LOW TOO FAR EAST FOR A LOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOWEVER, IT'S
POSSIBLE NE PA COULD BE CLIPPED BY THE NW CORNER OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT WOULDN'T LIKELY PRODUCE MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR RIVER ICE JAMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION,
COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL MELT THE SNOWPACK
INTO THE BASINS, THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIVER ICE TO
BREAK UP AND MOVE DOWN STREAM. TWO TO FIVE FOOT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD DISLODGE AND BREAK UP THE RIVER ICE. IF
THE ICE MOVING DOWNSTREAM WERE TO GET CAUGHT IN CERTAIN
CONFLUENCES OF THE RIVER OR NEAR BRIDGES THIS COULD CAUSE ICE
JAMS THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
TERMINALS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LOW
CLOUDS, FOG AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STEADIER RAIN/SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET
IS EXPECTED AROUND RME AND SYR THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO A BIT OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER ABOUT 15Z WITH VISIBILITY
RISING, BUT LINGERING MVFR/FUEL-ALT CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON RESTRICTIONS GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA SUNDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
036-037-044>046-057.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...DK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page