879
FXUS61 KBGM 190522
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1222 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS, BUT ENSURED TO HAVE AT
LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE ACCUMULATION WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS PRESENT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
2) ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
3) KEEPING ON AN EYE ON POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM, BUT LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY A MISS FOR OUR REGION.
4) THE THREAT OF ICE JAMS INCREASES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER, SO CUT BACK ON SNOWFALL
TOTALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. DRY
SLOT MOVES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT THERE WILL BE AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS EAST OF I81 CORRIDOR
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDING SHOW ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THE LACK OF ANY ICE
CRYSTALS, SO IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FZDZ, DECIDED TO
LEAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY THROUGH 4AM THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
BROOME AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES IN NY AND NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN
PA, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO THE
EXISTING ADVISORY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT WINTRY
SYSTEM FOR OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, AS WARM AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS
BELOW FREEZING SURFACE AIR MASS, GENERALLY EAST OF I-81. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MESSY AT THE ONSET WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR PLAIN RAIN BY SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL ICING AMOUNTS, BUT MORE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF THE I81 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE WAIT AND
SEE SCENARIO. MODELS HAVE BEEN HORRIBLE WITH FORECASTING THESE
SYSTEMS ALL WINTER LONG UNTIL WE GET TO THE 48 TO 72 HOURS TIME
WINDOW. AT THIS TIME, POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN OUR REGION AND ANOTHER NEAR MISS IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. IF THE STORM CAN GET ITS ACT TOGETHER A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, THEN WE COULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT SNOW WORK ITS WAY INTO NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
WE ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR RIVER ICE JAMS
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIQUID
PRECIPITATION, COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL MELT
THE SNOWPACK INTO THE BASINS, THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND MOVE DOWN STREAM. TWO TO FOUR FEET
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD DISLODGE AND BREAK UP THE
RIVER ICE. IF THE ICE MOVING DOWNSTREAM WERE TO GET CAUGHT IN
CERTAIN CONFLUENCES OF THE RIVER OR NEAR BRIDGES THIS COULD
CAUSE ICE JAMS THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. HEADING INTO
THE MORNING, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP WITH IFR/LIFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RME AND SYR SHOULD SEE
MVFR/FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS FOR TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON RESTRICTIONS GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA SUNDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038-043-047.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-057.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ022-024.
DISCUSSION...KL/MPK
AVIATION...KL
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