503
FXUS61 KBGM 191115
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
615 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ENDED. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
FRIDAY STORM WERE UPDATED, WITH LESS IN CNY BUT UNCREASED
SLIGHTLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
2) THREAT FOR A COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
HAS BECOME VERY LOW THOUGH A WEAK TROUGH MAY STILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
3) WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE SETUP IS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THIS EVENT THAT WE JUST HAD, BUT WITH THE LOW
OCCLUDING IN MICHIGAN COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WE WILL
HAVE BETTER FORCING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY HELPS
KEEP EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
INTO THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM UTICA SHOW A POTENTIAL FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TUG HILL. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS IN SULLIVAN COUNTY
INTO PIKE AND WAYNE COUNTY IN NEPA WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES COLDER. THE UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AS TRENDS IN THE
PRECIPITATION HAVE SHIFTED LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH OUR
SOLAR ANGLE CLIMBING, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH HEATING FROM THE
SUN THROUGH THE CLOUDS TO PUSH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING. TRENDS IN MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PUSH THE WARM
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WHICH WOULD MEAN LOWER CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR FREEZING RAIN WERE ISSUED YET.
MOST OF CNY, ALL OF THE FINGER LAKES, AND THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO
AREAS EAST OF THE POCONOS IN NEPA WILL SEE RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES PROPAGATES THROUGH
NY AND OFF OF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS IT DOES,
THE WARM FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW REGION WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SPEED
OF THE LOW PROPAGATION AND THE LIFT MOVES EAST FAST, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT AS THE TRENDS IN MODELS
HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A LESS EFFICIENT PHASING OF SHORTWAVES KEEPING
THE TROUGH LESS AMPLIFIED. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE TWO
WAVES CAN PHASE EFFICIENTLY AS WPCS CLUSTER PAGE DOES SHOW
ABOUT 20% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BETWEEN THE EPS, GEFS AND GEPS
HAVE AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH A DEEP COASTAL LOW. LOOKING AT
INDIVIDUAL LOW TRACKS IN THE EPS AND GEFS, THE CLOSEST MEMBERS
TO THE COAST ARE JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT MAINLY NEPA GETS IN
ON THE HEAVIER SNOW WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE REST OF THE
REGION. THE TOP TWO CLUSTERS ARE TO A MUCH MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AND SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN WAVE THAT DOES NOT DEVELOP
THE LOW UNTIL ITS WELL OFF SHORE. STILL SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE SHORT WAVES RESPONSIBLE
MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE THREAT REMAINS FOR
ICE JAMS. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SNOWPACK TEMPERATURE IS UP
TO 32 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES INTO NEPA SO ANY RAIN
AND SNOWMELT WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. RIVER
ICE IS ALSO ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND A FOOT ON SOME OF THE MAIN
STEMS SO AS THE WATER RISES AND THE ICE BREAKS UP, THERE IS ICE
JAM POTENTIAL ANYWHERE THERE IS A SHARP BEND OR A NARROWING OF A
RIVER OR STREAM.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE AREA IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RME/SYR, WHO
WILL STAY AT MVFR/FUEL ALT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON RESTRICTIONS GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA SUNDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038-043-
047.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ022-024.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...KL
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