133
FXUS61 KBGM 191820
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
120 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ENDED. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
FRIDAY STORM WERE UPDATED, WITH LESS IN CNY BUT INCREASED
SLIGHTLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
2) THREAT FOR A COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
HAS BECOME VERY LOW THOUGH A WEAK TROUGH MAY STILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
3) WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE SETUP IS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THIS EVENT THAT WE JUST HAD, BUT WITH THE LOW
OCCLUDING IN MICHIGAN COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WE WILL
HAVE BETTER FORCING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY HELPS
KEEP EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
INTO THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM UTICA SHOW A POTENTIAL FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TUG HILL. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS IN SULLIVAN COUNTY
INTO PIKE AND WAYNE COUNTY IN NEPA WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES COLDER. THE UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AS TRENDS IN THE
PRECIPITATION HAVE SHIFTED LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH OUR
SOLAR ANGLE CLIMBING, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH HEATING FROM THE
SUN THROUGH THE CLOUDS TO PUSH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING. TRENDS IN MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PUSH THE WARM
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WHICH WOULD MEAN LOWER CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR FREEZING RAIN WERE ISSUED YET.
MOST OF CNY, ALL OF THE FINGER LAKES, AND THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO
AREAS EAST OF THE POCONOS IN NEPA WILL SEE RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES PROPAGATES THROUGH
NY AND OFF OF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS IT DOES,
THE WARM FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW REGION WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SPEED
OF THE LOW PROPAGATION AND THE LIFT MOVES EAST FAST, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT AS THE TRENDS IN MODELS
HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A LESS EFFICIENT PHASING OF SHORTWAVES KEEPING
THE TROUGH LESS AMPLIFIED. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE TWO
WAVES CAN PHASE EFFICIENTLY AS WPCS CLUSTER PAGE DOES SHOW
ABOUT 20% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BETWEEN THE EPS, GEFS AND GEPS
HAVE AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH A DEEP COASTAL LOW. LOOKING AT
INDIVIDUAL LOW TRACKS IN THE EPS AND GEFS, THE CLOSEST MEMBERS
TO THE COAST ARE JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT MAINLY NEPA GETS IN
ON THE HEAVIER SNOW WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE REST OF THE
REGION. THE TOP TWO CLUSTERS ARE TO A MUCH MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AND SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN WAVE THAT DOES NOT DEVELOP
THE LOW UNTIL ITS WELL OFF SHORE. STILL SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE SHORT WAVES RESPONSIBLE
MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE THREAT REMAINS FOR
ICE JAMS. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SNOWPACK TEMPERATURE IS UP
TO 32 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES INTO NEPA SO ANY RAIN
AND SNOWMELT WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. RIVER
ICE IS ALSO ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND A FOOT ON SOME OF THE MAIN
STEMS SO AS THE WATER RISES AND THE ICE BREAKS UP, THERE IS ICE
JAM POTENTIAL ANYWHERE THERE IS A SHARP BEND OR A NARROWING OF A
RIVER OR STREAM.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THE LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN MOIST ON AREA SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THE INVERSION LEVEL DOES LOOK TO LIFT AROUND BGM
FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR RESTRICTIONS TO
FINALLY LIFT ABOVE AIRPORT MINS.
WARM ADVECTION RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW STARTING AROUND 10Z-13Z WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR OR WORSE VISBYS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW AT BGM AND RME DURING THIS TIME. BY LATE MORNING AND TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS, BUT RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON RESTRICTIONS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA SUNDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...DK
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