125
FXUS61 KBGM 200519
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1219 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
EXCEPT FOR THE FINGER LAKES REGION, FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY MORNING. MIXED PRECIPITATION LINGERS LONGER FOR THE
CATSKILLS AND ONEIDA COUNTY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORIES FOR
THOSE AREAS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
2) A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY MISS OUR REGION WELL TO THE EAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT A WEAK TROUGH MAY STILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
3) THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE JAMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH AN EXTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTING
INTO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS A WINTRY MIX
FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS (MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW),
BEFORE WARMER AIR FINALLY REACHES THE SURFACE BY THE AFTERNOON
AND TRANSITIONS MOST AREAS TO RAIN. HOWEVER, COLDER AIR DAMMING
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CATSKILLS TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY COLDER
LONGER AT THE SURFACE, AND THEREFORE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
A WINTRY MIX.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES PROPAGATES THROUGH
NY AND OFF OF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS IT DOES,
THE WARM FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE LOW
PROPAGATION AND THE LIFT MOVES EAST FAST, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EXACT ICE
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS, THERE IS A RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING ENOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN (PARTICULARLY EAST OF
I-81) FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED WITH THIS
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES
REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY REMAINS LOW AS THE TRENDS IN MODELS HAVE BEEN
TOWARDS A LESS EFFICIENT PHASING OF SHORTWAVES KEEPING THE
TROUGH LESS AMPLIFIED. IN OTHER WORDS, THE PHASING WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR TOO FAR OFFSHORE AND KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EITHER COMPLETELY OFFSHORE/OVER THE ATLANTIC, OR CLIPPING PARTS
OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT THE ODDS OF THIS ARE
DECREASING WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE THREAT REMAINS FOR
ICE JAMS. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SNOWPACK TEMPERATURE IS UP
TO 32 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES INTO NEPA, SO ANY
RAIN AND SNOWMELT WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE STREAMS AND RIVERS.
RIVER ICE IS ALSO ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND A FOOT ON SOME OF THE
MAIN STEMS SO AS THE WATER RISES AND THE ICE BREAKS UP, THERE IS
ICE JAM POTENTIAL ANYWHERE THERE IS A SHARP BEND OR A NARROWING
OF A RIVER OR STREAM.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BEFORE A SYSTEM LIFTS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 12Z, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, AND WORSENING CONDITIONS.
WITH CURRENT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT
ALL TERMINALS, PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY FALL AS RAIN, WITH
EXCEPTION OF RME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PROFILE INDICATE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN, SO IT WAS KEPT IN THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE. RME WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE ONLY TERMINAL WHERE WE'LL
SEE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO WET SNOW AFTER 00Z TOMORROW.
WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN ADDED TO AVP, BUT COULD BE ADDED TO OTHER
TERMINALS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY AT
AVP AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON RESTRICTIONS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA SUNDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON
EST TODAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON
EST TODAY FOR NYZ036-044-045-055-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ037-046-057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...KL
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