707
FXUS61 KBGM 201127
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
627 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES, FREEZING RAIN WAS REMOVED FROM THE
GRIDS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WERE LOWERED ALONG I-81 CORRIDOR WITH A
SMALLER WINDOW OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WERE INCREASED ON THE EASTERN SLOPES AND SUMMITS OF CATSKILLS
AND EASTERN POCONOS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH OUR REGION BRINGING RAIN
AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
2) WHILE A COASTAL LOW STAYS TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS WEEKEND, A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION,
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW.
3) WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN STAYING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN MODELED AS THICK CLOUD COVER HAS PREVENTED COOLING. DEW
POINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE SE
WINDS IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND TWIN TIERS REGION. IN THE
FINGER LAKES AND CHEMUNG RIVER BASIN, DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING IN
BY AROUND SUNRISE AND WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN
NEPA UP INTO THE FINGER LAKES, FREEZING RAIN WAS TAKEN OUT OF
THE GRIDS. FOR THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD, THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL HELP THE AIR TEMPERATURE WETBULB DOWN BELOW FREEZING
AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEFORE WARMING UP AT PRECIPITATION ONSET.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A PRETTY SHALLOW COLD INVERSION AT THE
SURFACE FOR THE CATSKILLS AND EAST, WITH EAST WINDS SO AS THE
RAINFALL INTENSIFIES LATER THIS MORNING, THAT WILL MIX OUT THAT
COLD AIR FAIRLY QUICKLY WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. EAST
OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS, THOSE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL HELP TRAP COLD AIR IN PLACE SO AREAS IN SULLIVAN COUNTY
DOWN INTO PIKE AND WAYNE MAY SEE FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES AND SUMMITS OF THE CATSKILLS IN
DELAWARE AND OTSEGO COUNTIES ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR A LONGER
DURATION FREEZING RAIN EVENT. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A HALF INCH
OR LESS SO NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SUMMITS
OF THE CATSKILLS MAY GET UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE WITH LOWER
SLOPES CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HEADED NORTH INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS OUT OF
UTICA AND UP INTO ROME STILL LOOK MARGINAL WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. GIVEN THE EAST WINDS, IT MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO WOBBLE TEMPERATURES UP AND DOWN. HEAVIER
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN THE WARMER
AIR AND POP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING BUT BETWEEN HEAVIER
BANDS, SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SNOW IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET ABOVE
FREEZING RIGHT AROUND PRECIPITATION ONSET. STILL LEFT SOME SNOW
IN THE GRIDS JUST IN CASE THERE CAN BE SOME COOLING OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DURING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO BRIEFLY MIX
IN SOME WET SNOW.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO OCCLUDE AS A NEW LOW FORMS OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
DEEPEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
COOLING DROPS TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WITH PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW REGION WIDE. GIVEN THAT THE FORCING
QUICKLY LEAVES AS THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW RACES EAST LEAVING
BEHIND AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE, TILL GIVEN THE
SUBTLE RISING MOTION AND MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER THIS TROUGH,
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL FORM THIS WEEKEND, THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LEFT BEHIND BY OUR CURRENT LOW WILL CONNECT
WITH THIS LOW AND HELP SNOW REDEVELOP OVER OUR REGION AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA COAST. GIVEN THE LACK
OF STRONG LIFT, SNOW WILL NOT BE HEAVY BUT BROAD WEAK LIFT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT, PERSISTENT SNOW FROM LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE RATES WILL NOT BE HIGH, THE DURATION
OF THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WITH THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TODAY, THE THREAT
REMAINS FOR ICE JAMS. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SNOWPACK
TEMPERATURE IS UP TO 32 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES
INTO NEPA SO ANY RAIN AND SNOWMELT WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE
STREAMS AND RIVERS. RIVER ICE IS ALSO ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND A
FOOT ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEMS, SO AS THE WATER RISES AND THE
ICE BREAKS UP, THERE IS ICE JAM POTENTIAL ANYWHERE THERE IS A
SHARP BEND OR A NARROWING OF A RIVER OR STREAM. AREAS IN THE
CATSKILLS AND EASTERN POCONOS DON'T HAVE AS HIGH OF AN ICE JAM
THREAT AS THE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING MUCH SNOW MELT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WARM FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, AND
WORSENING CONDITIONS.
WITH CURRENT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT
ALL TERMINALS, PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY FALL AS RAIN, WITH
EXCEPTION OF RME AND BGM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PROFILE
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION ONSET. FOR BGM, THAT WOULD BE NOW
THROUGH MID-MORNING, AND RME STARTING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO, AND POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RME WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE THE ONLY TERMINAL WHERE WE'LL SEE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION TO WET SNOW AFTER 00Z.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR WIND SHEAR IS AT AVP, WHICH HAS BEEN KEPT
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE, LASTING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON RESTRICTIONS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA SUNDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ036-044-
045-055-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ037-046-
057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...KL
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