212
FXUS61 KBGM 201838
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES, FREEZING RAIN WAS REMOVED FROM THE
GRIDS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WERE LOWERED ALONG I-81 CORRIDOR WITH A
SMALLER WINDOW OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WERE INCREASED ON THE EASTERN SLOPES AND SUMMITS OF CATSKILLS
AND EASTERN POCONOS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH OUR REGION BRINGING RAIN
AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
2) WHILE A COASTAL LOW STAYS TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS WEEKEND, A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION,
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW.
3) WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN STAYING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN MODELED AS THICK CLOUD COVER HAS PREVENTED COOLING. DEW
POINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE SE
WINDS IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND TWIN TIERS REGION. IN THE
FINGER LAKES AND CHEMUNG RIVER BASIN, DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING IN
BY AROUND SUNRISE AND WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN
NEPA UP INTO THE FINGER LAKES, FREEZING RAIN WAS TAKEN OUT OF
THE GRIDS. FOR THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD, THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL HELP THE AIR TEMPERATURE WETBULB DOWN BELOW FREEZING
AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEFORE WARMING UP AT PRECIPITATION ONSET.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A PRETTY SHALLOW COLD INVERSION AT THE
SURFACE FOR THE CATSKILLS AND EAST, WITH EAST WINDS SO AS THE
RAINFALL INTENSIFIES LATER THIS MORNING, THAT WILL MIX OUT THAT
COLD AIR FAIRLY QUICKLY WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. EAST
OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS, THOSE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL HELP TRAP COLD AIR IN PLACE SO AREAS IN SULLIVAN COUNTY
DOWN INTO PIKE AND WAYNE MAY SEE FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES AND SUMMITS OF THE CATSKILLS IN
DELAWARE AND OTSEGO COUNTIES ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR A LONGER
DURATION FREEZING RAIN EVENT. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A HALF INCH
OR LESS SO NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SUMMITS
OF THE CATSKILLS MAY GET UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE WITH LOWER
SLOPES CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HEADED NORTH INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS OUT OF
UTICA AND UP INTO ROME STILL LOOK MARGINAL WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. GIVEN THE EAST WINDS, IT MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO WOBBLE TEMPERATURES UP AND DOWN. HEAVIER
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN THE WARMER
AIR AND POP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING BUT BETWEEN HEAVIER
BANDS, SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SNOW IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET ABOVE
FREEZING RIGHT AROUND PRECIPITATION ONSET. STILL LEFT SOME SNOW
IN THE GRIDS JUST IN CASE THERE CAN BE SOME COOLING OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DURING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO BRIEFLY MIX
IN SOME WET SNOW.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO OCCLUDE AS A NEW LOW FORMS OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
DEEPEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
COOLING DROPS TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WITH PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW REGION WIDE. GIVEN THAT THE FORCING
QUICKLY LEAVES AS THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW RACES EAST LEAVING
BEHIND AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE, TILL GIVEN THE
SUBTLE RISING MOTION AND MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER THIS TROUGH,
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL FORM THIS WEEKEND, THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LEFT BEHIND BY OUR CURRENT LOW WILL CONNECT
WITH THIS LOW AND HELP SNOW REDEVELOP OVER OUR REGION AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA COAST. GIVEN THE LACK
OF STRONG LIFT, SNOW WILL NOT BE HEAVY BUT BROAD WEAK LIFT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT, PERSISTENT SNOW FROM LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE RATES WILL NOT BE HIGH, THE DURATION
OF THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WITH THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TODAY, THE THREAT
REMAINS FOR ICE JAMS. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SNOWPACK
TEMPERATURE IS UP TO 32 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES
INTO NEPA SO ANY RAIN AND SNOWMELT WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE
STREAMS AND RIVERS. RIVER ICE IS ALSO ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND A
FOOT ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEMS, SO AS THE WATER RISES AND THE
ICE BREAKS UP, THERE IS ICE JAM POTENTIAL ANYWHERE THERE IS A
SHARP BEND OR A NARROWING OF A RIVER OR STREAM. AREAS IN THE
CATSKILLS AND EASTERN POCONOS DON'T HAVE AS HIGH OF AN ICE JAM
THREAT AS THE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING MUCH SNOW MELT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE A QUICK HIT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN 22Z
AND 02Z THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE FAVORED AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO THE
WEST/SW TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST/NW SAT MORNING. GUSTS
TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON ARE POSSIBLE AND GUSTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY COULD INCREASE UP TO 15 KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL HOVER AROUND MVFR/FUEL ALTERNATE REQUIRED THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIPPING TO IFR AS AN AREA
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES THROUGH. FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH BEFORE DROPPING
BACK TO FUEL ALT/IFR AFTER 08-09Z...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MOST
OF THE SATURDAY MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY RME,SYR,ITH AND BGM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RESTRICTIONS
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA SUNDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NYZ022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ037-046-
057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BJT/KL
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