652
FXUS61 KBGM 210009
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
709 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA, WHERE ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STEUBEN
COUNTY WHERE ICE JAMS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. THE
STRONG COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO TREND NORTH AND WEST CLOSER TO OUR
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE INCREASING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION BRINGING RAIN AND
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
2) WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN.
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR STEUBEN COUNTY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
3) A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS WEEKEND,
TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY MONDAY MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION,
BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW. PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NE PA & SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS) MAY BE MORE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THE COASTAL LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME, AND IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY MUCH, UNTIL A COLD FRONT PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND ALL OF NE PA HAS
WARMED UP INTO THE MID-30S TO MID-40S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AROUND. A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL
CATSKILLS INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY A
MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS INTO
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT, WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND JUST A LIGHT GLAZE OF
ICE...EXCEPT PERHAPS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWERS 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TROUGH STALLS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NY, BUT WITH REALLY NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SEVERAL ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND NOTED ACROSS STEUBEN COUNTY
BUT EMA PARTNERS. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID-40S AND ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE TO ADD SOME WATER
INTO THE RIVERS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
THICK ICE TO CONTINUE BREAKING UP AND MOVING. THEREFORE, WE CANNOT
RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS AND/OR ICE JAMES PRODUCING FLOODING
ISSUES. THE MELTING PROCESSES MAY SLOW LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING, BUT
AS IT WARMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT COULD VERY
WELL OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CURRENT MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL PLAYERS ACROSS
THE US, THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO PHASE TOGETHER TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE A
LARGE AND POWERFUL NOR EASTERN OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AN MID LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES,
DRIFTING EAST WITH TIME. A JET STREAK, WITH ADDED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING PICKED UP EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO, INTO
TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER KEY MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS SEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS COLORADO. THIS IS A COMPLEX
SETUP AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO TREND TOWARD A
STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST LOW PRESSURE CENTER LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THE CHARGE WAS LEAD BY THE GFS/GEFS MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOW
THERE WAS A FAIRLY SIZABLE SHIFT NW WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN (GEFS/CMC/ECS) IS
NOW SHOWING A 984MB LOW 60-90NM EAST OF OCEAN CITY MD BY 1 AM
MONDAY, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING TO A SUB 970MB LOW NEAR
THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
LINGERING BACK ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND CENTRAL NY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, COMING FROM THE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING OUR AREA. THIS INVERTED TROUGH MAY ACT AS AN ADDITIONAL
LIFTING MECHANISM TO PRODUCE BANDS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL IN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE EXACT DETAILS, SUCH AS TRACK, TIMING AND
SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH THIS COASTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
WITH THAT SAID TRENDS ARE DEFINITELY POINTING UP FOR AN IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN US.
THE LATEST 13Z NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS, WHERE CHANCES ARE UP TO 50-70% IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
STILL, EVEN WITH THIS NORTHWEST TREND IN THE GUIDANCE TODAY, THE
HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM LIKELY REMAINS EAST OF OUR CWA.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE SNOW AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EVOLVE WITH THIS LOW, AS IT BECOMES CLOSED
OFF AT 700MB AND EVEN 500MB MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE MESOSCALE
BANDING POTENTIAL AS WELL, BUT AGAIN, BEING 48-72 HOURS OUT IN TIME
IS STILL CLOUDING THESE SPECIFIC DETAILS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO VERY
CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS, AND IF
CONFIDENCE IN WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO INCREASE,
WINTER STORM WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BASED ON THE LATEST DATA LOOKS TO BE AS
FOLLOWS. SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS AND
EXPANDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE SNOW COULD
BECOME LOCALLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND/OR
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS, SO THE SNOW MAY NOT ACCUMULATED VERY EFFECTIVELY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS SUNDAY; THUS LOWERING SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. PERIODS OF SNOW THEN CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH SPECIFICS STILL UNKNOWN. TEMPERATURES DO FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S SO SNOW TO LIQUIDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE, CLOSER TO 15:1.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS EAST.
SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT (-10C AT 850MB) FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MIX OF RAIN SHOWERS, SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SLEET
PELLETS WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR CENTRAL NY TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
02Z THIS EVENING. IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT BGM
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING
BACK TO MVFR FUEL ALT AFTER ABOUT 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR INTERMITTENT IFR VISIBILITY AT RME
OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO (00-02Z) AS PERIODIC SNOW MOVES
THROUGH THIS TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, ELM AND SYR ARE VFR NOW, BUT
SHOULD FALL BACK TO MVFR BY 03/04Z LATE THIS EVENING.
THEN, THE LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES, WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY.
AFTER ABOUT 06-08Z SATURDAY, THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
NORTH, LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING SYR AND RME, WHILE THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS DRY OUT.
CIGS HOLD AT MVFR/MVFR FUEL ALT MUCH OF THE TIME AT ALL
TERMINALS RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TRY TO EXPAND BACK SOUTH TOWARD ITH/ELM/BGM
HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING; BUT VSBYS WILL BE 5-8SM + WITH
THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY.
EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, GENERALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 5-12 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES, WITH
GENERALLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT OUT NY TAF SITES.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA SUNDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NYZ022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ037-046-
057-062.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BJT/MJM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page