580
FXUS61 KBGM 210754
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
254 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NE PA AND
THE CATSKILLS IN NY. A STRONG COASTAL LOW, WITH UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINING WITH ITS TRACK, WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND,
TRACKING NORTHEAST TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FLOOD
WATCHES REMAIN FOR STEUBEN AND TOMPKINS COUNTIES UNTIL THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS WEEKEND,
TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY MONDAY MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION,
BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW. PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NE PA & SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS) MAY BE MORE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THE COASTAL LOW,
HOWEVER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD EXTEND NORTH INTO THE TWIN
TIERS.
2) WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR STEUBEN AND TOMPKINS COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
DEEPEN AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT WE’LL BE WATCHING FOR CURRENTLY IS
THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH STARTING TO FORM IN THE WESTERN
US, WHERE THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL LOW, AS WELL AS A JET STREAK STEMMING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ADDING MOISTURE. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AS THE MAIN
TROUGH DEVELOPS. CURRENTLY, THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC
SOLUTION FOR SNOW-LOVERS, WHERE DELAYED PHASING RESULTS IN THE
COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENING FARTHER EAST AND LATER THAN OTHER
DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS (AROUND 00Z MONDAY). SOLUTIONS
FAVORING HIGHER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOW THIS PHASING
OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY, AROUND 15Z TO 21Z, WHERE
THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKER ONCE HEADING INTO OCEAN
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL FACTOR TO CONSIDER WILL BE SLRS; THIS SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WETTER SIDE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF PLACES IN NE PA.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES DROP, SLRS INCREASE A
LITTLE, BUT WE ALSO SEE THE VERTICAL PROFILE ALIGN MORE INTO THE
DGZ, WHICH WILL ALLOW BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EVEN ALMOST A DAY BEFORE ONSET TIME,
THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVENT WITH DIFFERING FACTORS AT PLAY.
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NE PA AND
THE CATSKILLS IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SEVERAL ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND NOTED ACROSS STEUBEN AND
TOMPKINS COUNTIES BY EM PARTNERS, AS WELL AS OBSERVED ON RIVER
GAUGES. WITH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE-FREEZING,
THIS WILL ALLOW THE THICK ICE TO CONTINUE BREAKING UP AND
MOVING. THEREFORE, WE CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS AND/OR
ICE JAMES PRODUCING FLOODING ISSUES.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS CNY TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY, SYR AND RME LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. RME IS EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR
RESTRICTIONS WHILE SYR SHOULD BE MVFR/FUEL ALT. MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
PROVIDES WNW FLOW PUSHING LAKE MOISTURE AND THUS A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THIS STRATUS DECK
FALLING TO IFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IT AT ITH DURING THIS TAF SET.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES, WITH
GENERALLY MVFR/FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA SUNDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE FOR IMPACTS OVER NEPA, WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
NW THE SNOW WILL GO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ022-025.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NYZ057-062.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...JTC
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