489
FXUS61 KBGM 211146
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NE PA AND
THE CATSKILLS IN NY. A STRONG COASTAL LOW, WITH UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINING WITH ITS TRACK, WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND,
TRACKING NORTHEAST TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FLOOD
WATCHES REMAIN FOR STEUBEN AND TOMPKINS COUNTIES UNTIL THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS WEEKEND,
TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY MONDAY MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION,
BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW. PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NE PA & SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS) MAY BE MORE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THE COASTAL LOW,
HOWEVER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD EXTEND NORTH INTO THE TWIN
TIERS.
2) WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR STEUBEN AND TOMPKINS COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
DEEPEN AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT WELL BE WATCHING FOR CURRENTLY IS
THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH STARTING TO FORM IN THE WESTERN
US, WHERE THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL LOW, AS WELL AS A JET STREAK STEMMING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ADDING MOISTURE. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AS THE MAIN
TROUGH DEVELOPS. CURRENTLY, THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC
SOLUTION FOR SNOW-LOVERS, WHERE DELAYED PHASING RESULTS IN THE
COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENING FARTHER EAST AND LATER THAN OTHER
DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS (AROUND 00Z MONDAY). SOLUTIONS
FAVORING HIGHER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOW THIS PHASING
OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY, AROUND 15Z TO 21Z, WHERE
THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKER ONCE HEADING INTO OCEAN
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL FACTOR TO CONSIDER WILL BE SLRS; THIS SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WETTER SIDE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF PLACES IN NE PA.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES DROP, SLRS INCREASE A
LITTLE, BUT WE ALSO SEE THE VERTICAL PROFILE ALIGN MORE INTO THE
DGZ, WHICH WILL ALLOW BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EVEN ALMOST A DAY BEFORE ONSET TIME,
THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVENT WITH DIFFERING FACTORS AT PLAY.
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NE PA AND
THE CATSKILLS IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SEVERAL ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND NOTED ACROSS STEUBEN AND
TOMPKINS COUNTIES BY EM PARTNERS, AS WELL AS OBSERVED ON RIVER
GAUGES. WITH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE-FREEZING,
THIS WILL ALLOW THE THICK ICE TO CONTINUE BREAKING UP AND
MOVING. THEREFORE, WE CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS AND/OR
ICE JAMES PRODUCING FLOODING ISSUES.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR/FUEL ALT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION. RME CONTINUES
TO SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT SHOULD LAST OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE DAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR UNTIL THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BRIEFLY CLIMBING TO FUEL ALT FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND FALLING BACK TO IFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MVFR/FUEL ALT CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY AS NW FLOW KEEPS A LOW STRATUS DECK AROUND. SYR
COULD SEE AN INVERSION SET UP STARTING IN THE EVENING, TRAPPING
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND BRINGING IFR CIGS FROM MID EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOW SHOWERS FROM A NOR'EASTER ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, IMPACTING ELM/BGM/AVP IN THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE PA SUNDAY
WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR
IMPACTS OVER NEPA, WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NW THE SNOW
AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL GO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ022-025.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NYZ057-062.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...JTC
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