865
FXUS61 KBGM 211808
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
108 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NE PA AND
THE CATSKILLS IN NY. A STRONG COASTAL LOW, WITH UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINING WITH ITS TRACK, WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND,
TRACKING NORTHEAST TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FLOOD
WATCHES REMAIN FOR STEUBEN AND TOMPKINS COUNTIES UNTIL THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS WEEKEND,
TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY MONDAY MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION,
BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW. PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NE PA & SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS) MAY BE MORE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THE COASTAL LOW,
HOWEVER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD EXTEND NORTH INTO THE TWIN
TIERS.
2) WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR STEUBEN AND TOMPKINS
COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
DEEPEN AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT WELL BE WATCHING FOR CURRENTLY IS
THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH STARTING TO FORM IN THE WESTERN
US, WHERE THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL LOW, AS WELL AS A JET STREAK STEMMING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ADDING MOISTURE. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AS THE MAIN
TROUGH DEVELOPS. CURRENTLY, THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC
SOLUTION FOR SNOW-LOVERS, WHERE DELAYED PHASING RESULTS IN THE
COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENING FARTHER EAST AND LATER THAN OTHER
DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS (AROUND 00Z MONDAY). SOLUTIONS
FAVORING HIGHER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOW THIS PHASING
OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY, AROUND 15Z TO 21Z, WHERE
THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKER ONCE HEADING INTO OCEAN
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL FACTOR TO CONSIDER WILL BE SLRS; THIS SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WETTER SIDE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF PLACES IN NE PA.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES DROP, SLRS INCREASE A
LITTLE, BUT WE ALSO SEE THE VERTICAL PROFILE ALIGN MORE INTO THE
DGZ, WHICH WILL ALLOW BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EVEN ALMOST A DAY BEFORE ONSET TIME,
THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVENT WITH DIFFERING FACTORS AT PLAY.
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NE PA AND
THE CATSKILLS IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SEVERAL ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND NOTED ACROSS STEUBEN AND
TOMPKINS COUNTIES BY EM PARTNERS, AS WELL AS OBSERVED ON RIVER
GAUGES. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE-FREEZING, THIS
WILL ALLOW THE THICK ICE TO CONTINUE BREAK UP AND MOVE.
THEREFORE, WE CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS AND/OR ICE
JAMS TO RESULT IN FLOODING ISSUES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A PERSISTENT DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO BRING AT LEAST
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
TERMINALS (MAINLY KSYR, KITH, AND KBGM) AT IFR. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
BRIEF/SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
LIGHT SNOW FROM A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM/NOR'EASTER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING, IFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AROUND THE SAME
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR KAVP AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL
GET, SO LOWER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS.
MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ044-047-048-072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ022-025.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ046-057.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ062.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...BJG
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