795
FXUS61 KBGM 101057
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MORE MINOR
FLOODING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND A LOW CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.
3) TEMPERATURES THEN TREND COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A SLIGHT
WARM UP SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NBM,
AS WARM RETURN FLOW AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER NORTH, LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR.
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND DROP
SOUTHWARD. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE 50S MOST AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM
AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A FACTOR THOUGH AND COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECASTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE
THE LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT OF 1000+ J/KG, THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CLIPS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA
WITH A MARGINAL RISK ON THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER, AS THE SET UP LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THIS PAST WEEKEND WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AND THE FRONT IS LATE TO MOVE THROUGH. IT WILL
BE VERY TOUGH FOR THE STRONGER WIND ALOFT TO BREAK THROUGH THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND MIX TO THE SURFACE. WITH THE WARM
CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES AS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY STILL
HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOWPACK.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, MUCH COLDER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND
IT ON THURSDAY. AS IT EXITS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
COOL, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND OVER INTO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE STRONG
AROUND THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT THANKS TO TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. AS A RESULT, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST TO END
THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLDER
THAN NORMAL. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK, SO PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE ALSO UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER,
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE FAVOR JUST RAIN AND SNOW. THEN ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WARM UP
ON SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A MIXED
BACK OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AS RAIN, SNOW, AND WINTRY MIX WOULD
ALL BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THIS FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST TWO TERMINALS TO SEE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE AT KRME AND KSYR, BUT RESTRICTIONS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE KITH, KELM, AND KBGM BY THIS
EVENING. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS, A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IMPACT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND
KRME, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MINIMAL VISBY
RESTRICTIONS. KAVP LIKELY REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD (AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY).
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. THUNDER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS,
MIXING IN WITH SNOW SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
CLIMATE
NEAR-RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED TODAY (3/10) AND WEDNESDAY (3/11).
FOR REFERENCE, BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OUR
THREE CLIMATE SITES (KSYR, KBGM, AND KAVP) FOR THESE DATES:
MARCH 10TH:
SYRACUSE, NY: 67 DEGREES (1977)
BINGHAMTON, NY: 66 DEGREES (1977)
AVOCA, PA: 68 DEGREES (1955)
MARCH 11TH:
SYRACUSE, NY: 73 DEGREES (2021)
BINGHAMTON, NY: 68 DEGREES (1977)
AVOCA, PA: 74 DEGREES (2021)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...BJG
CLIMATE...BJG
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