350
FXUS61 KBGM 110604
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
204 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ONEIDA COUNTY DUE TO EXPECTED
RAINFALL ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND SNOWMELT DUE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MORE MINOR
FLOODING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND A LOW CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.
3) TEMPERATURES THEN TREND COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A SLIGHT
WARM UP SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVERHEAD. DENSE FOG IS PRESENT AT ELMIRA
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. IT WILL BE VERY
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S - LIKELY SETTING
RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
PSEUDO STATIONARY ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING ROUNDS OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A FACTOR THOUGH AND COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECASTED AND INSTABILITY TO A
MINIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE
THE LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT OF 1000+ J/KG, THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CLIPS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA
WITH A MARGINAL RISK ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER, AS THE SET UP LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THIS PAST WEEKEND WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AND THE FRONT IS LATE TO MOVE THROUGH. IT WILL
BE VERY TOUGH FOR THE STRONGER WIND ALOFT TO BREAK THROUGH THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND MIX TO THE SURFACE. WITH THE WARM
CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES AS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY STILL
HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOWPACK. AS A RESULT OF THE SNOWPACK,
RAINFALL, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. RISES IN RIVERS IN CENTRAL NY ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, MUCH COLDER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND
IT ON THURSDAY. AS IT EXITS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
COOL, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND OVER INTO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE STRONG
AROUND THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT THANKS TO TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. AS A RESULT, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST TO END
THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLDER
THAN NORMAL. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK, SO PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE ALSO UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER,
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE FAVOR JUST RAIN AND SNOW. THEN ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WARM UP
ON SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A MIXED
BACK OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AS RAIN, SNOW, AND WINTRY MIX WOULD
ALL BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THIS FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO START THE 06Z TAF PERIOD,
WITH JUST ONE EXCEPTION. FOG DEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING AT
KELM, AND VISBYS HAVE BEEN AT AIRPORT MINS THERE. THERE IS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LONG THOSE 1/4SM VISBYS REMAIN
THERE AS THERE ARE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN. MOST LIKELY, THERE
WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 09Z OR SO, WITH FOG LIKELY LIFTING
BY 12Z OR SO. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN, ALONG
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A COUPLE OF BRIEF WINDOWS OF WEAK LLWS; FIRST
BEING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSYR, THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING AT
MOST TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS,
MIXING IN WITH SNOW SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
CLIMATE
NEAR-RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY (WEDNESDAY 3/11).
FOR REFERENCE, BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OUR
THREE CLIMATE SITES (KSYR, KBGM, AND KAVP) FOR MARCH 11TH:
SYRACUSE, NY: 73 DEGREES (2021)
BINGHAMTON, NY: 68 DEGREES (1977)
AVOCA, PA: 74 DEGREES (2021)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO CTP
AVIATION...BJG
CLIMATE...BJG
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