465
FXUS61 KBGM 110656
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, WITH
1-3 POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING INTO THURSDAY AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
2) TEMPERATURES THEN TREND COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SLIGHT WARM UP SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
TODAY, WE WILL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND
70S. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, PUSHING A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
LOW DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. ALONG THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND IT IS POSSIBLE AN
ELEVATED QLCS DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LOW
LEVEL STABILITY WITH A DECENT SURFACE INVERSION THAT SHOULD
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS
1000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE FROM THE TWIN TIERS ON SOUTHWARD AND SPC
SLIPS CLIPS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH A MARGINAL
RISK ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. IT WILL BE VERY TOUGH FOR THE
STRONGER WIND ALOFT TO BREAK THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
MIX TO THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THE WARM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES. THE
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY
THAT STILL HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOWPACK. AS A RESULT OF THE
SNOWPACK, RAINFALL, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES A FLOOD WATCH IS OUT
FOR ONEIDA COUNTY.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, MUCH COLDER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND
IT ON THURSDAY. AS IT EXITS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
COOL, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND OVER INTO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE STRONG
AROUND THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT THANKS TO TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. AS A RESULT, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK, SO
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE ALSO UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE FAVOR JUST RAIN AND SNOW. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WARM UP ON SUNDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A MIXED BACK OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES AS RAIN, SNOW, AND WINTRY MIX WOULD ALL BE
POSSIBLE. BEHIND THIS FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO START THE 06Z TAF PERIOD,
WITH JUST ONE EXCEPTION. FOG DEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING AT
KELM, AND VISBYS HAVE BEEN AT AIRPORT MINS THERE. THERE IS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LONG THOSE 1/4SM VISBYS REMAIN
THERE AS THERE ARE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN. MOST LIKELY, THERE
WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 09Z OR SO, WITH FOG LIKELY LIFTING
BY 12Z OR SO. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN, ALONG
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A COUPLE OF BRIEF WINDOWS OF WEAK LLWS; FIRST
BEING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSYR, THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING AT
MOST TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS,
MIXING IN WITH SNOW SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
CLIMATE
NEAR-RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY (WEDNESDAY 3/11).
FOR REFERENCE, BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OUR
THREE CLIMATE SITES (KSYR, KBGM, AND KAVP) FOR MARCH 11TH:
SYRACUSE, NY: 73 DEGREES (2021)
BINGHAMTON, NY: 68 DEGREES (1977)
AVOCA, PA: 74 DEGREES (2021)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-037.
DISCUSSION...MPK
AVIATION...BJG
CLIMATE...BJG
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