357
FXUS61 KBGM 112324
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
724 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY AS LATEST CAM GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM NBM
TIMING. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED AS MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS NOT HANDLING CURRENT OBS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BRING A
POTENTIAL ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE WYOMING
VALLEY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK WILL BRING A CHANCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING.
2) A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3) TEMPERATURES THEN TREND COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SLIGHT WARM UP SUNDAY. A DEEP TROUGH BRINGS BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ACROSS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE IT IS ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED EARLIER.
THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE A
BRIEF LULL MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE TEMPS TO RECOVER, BUT
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AND WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
PEAK HEATING SO HEATING TO BREAK THE STABLE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
ACROSS CNY LOOKS UNLIKELY. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY HERE, WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE, GETTING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE LOOKS UNLIKELY, BUT SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN WINDS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-35MPH RANGE THIS
EVENING.
NEPA, AND MORE SPECIFICALLY LUZERNE COUNTY, CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOP AS WE ARE SEEING A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP DEVELOPING.
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45-60KTS MOVES INTO
THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LLJ OF 70-80KTS DEVELOPING
AROUND 825MB, JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHETHER TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FORM THAT COULD BE
INGESTED INTO A DEVELOPING STORM. THE SCRANTON AREA WAS MOVING
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S, BUT RAIN OVER
THE PAST 2 HOURS HAS DROPPED TEMPS BACK TO 65. THERE IS SOME
CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH, BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER ENOUGH TO BRING THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. IF IT WAS TO
HAPPEN, DAMAGING WINDS AND AND ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. A DRASTIC
TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AROUND MIDNIGHT TO TO 30S BY THE MORNING
COMMUTE. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30-40MPH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
COLD AIR FLOWING IN. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD KICK OUT TO THE
EAST BY THE MORNING, BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH EXPECTED ON ELEVATED AND SHADED AREAS.
WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ONEIDA
COUNTY WHERE RAIN AND A MELTING SNOWPACK COULD BRING MINOR
FLOODING TO AREAS THAT USUALLY FLOOD IN THESE SITUATIONS. IF WE
OVERPERFORM ON THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA BASIN, A FEW
AREAS COULD REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE AFTERNOON,
FALLING BACK TO FREEZING IN THE EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT, WITH A FEW TENTHS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HIGHER NUMBERS
WHILE THE FINGER LAKES AND VALLEYS WOULD BE ON THE LOWER END.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE GUSTING TO 25-35MPH. PRECIP SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR DIVES INTO THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK, WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON MONDAY
WILL FALL TO THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BRING
GREATER CHANCES FOR A FEW HOURS OF RESTRICTIONS, UNLIKE EARLIER
WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY BRINGING RESTRICTIONS. THE
MAIN PUSH OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL ROLL THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND
07Z, AND A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR EVERY TERMINAL TO
COVER THESE STEADIER SHOWERS. AFTERWARDS, MVFR/FUEL ALT CEILINGS
WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW,
BESIDES AVP, WHO WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR SOONER THAN THE NY
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS,
MIXING IN WITH SNOW SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
CLIMATE
NEAR-RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY (WEDNESDAY 3/11).
FOR REFERENCE, BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OUR
THREE CLIMATE SITES (KSYR, KBGM, AND KAVP) FOR MARCH 11TH:
SYRACUSE, NY: 73 DEGREES (2021)
BINGHAMTON, NY: 68 DEGREES (1977)
AVOCA, PA: 74 DEGREES (2021)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-037.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...KL
CLIMATE...BJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page