776
FXUS61 KBGM 121743
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
143 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON COULD CONTAIN GRAUPEL. SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LATE WINTER CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND MAY INCLUDE GRAUPEL AND GUSTY WINDS.
2) A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING TOMORROW AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW, ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS SOUTH OF IT, WITH THE SOUTHERN TUG
HILL HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.
3) ANOTHER WARMUP EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING
ANOTHER LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 30
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING TODAY BUT VALLEYS AND LOW
ELEVATIONS SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND BARE GROUND NOW
THAT THE SNOW HAS ALMOST ALL MELTED LEADS TO SOME AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SO CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO THE
GRIDS. DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOWER WET BULB TEMPERATURES,
SNOW WAS ADDED FOR ANYWHERE THAT WAS BELOW 37 DEGREES. WITH THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, THE STRONGER
CELLS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL. A FLASH
OF LIGHTNING CANT BE RULED OUT, BUT THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT WAS MORE
UNCERTAIN EVEN THOUGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW -10C AS THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY LIKELY PREVENTS ANY ORGANIZED BAND FROM
FORMING. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND MAY FORM IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BUT THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY SO THE
WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS SMALL AND LIMITED TO ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-90.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS HAS BEEN COMMON THIS WINTER, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM FORMS IN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER
TODAY AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW. NOW THAT
WE HAVE MORE WARM AIR AND A STRONGER SUN, THE PRECIPITATION FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHWARD LOOKS LIKE MORE RAIN TO A RAIN
SNOW MIX ABOVE 1200 FEET AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S PRIOR TO PRECIP ARRIVAL. NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
STAYS A LITTLE COOLER ALOFT LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. DOWNSLOPE AREAS
LIKE THE I-90 CORRIDOR MAY WARM ENOUGH TO START AS RAIN AND
CHANGE TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY.
OVERALL THERE IS NOT A TON OF MOISTURE FOR THE CLIPPER TO WORK
WITH, SO MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF QPF. CAMS ARE ADAMANT THAT THERE WILL BE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IN THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE IFFY WITH THE BEST LIFT BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS BETTER FOR
LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE AS THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKES OVER. ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW DOES LOOK LIKE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY, BUT GIVEN THE POOR SOUNDING PROFILE UNDER THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION PART OF THE STORM, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN WARNING CRITERIA FOR SNOW, SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
NORTHERN ONEIDA. THERE ALSO HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SET UPS SIMILAR TO
THIS CLIPPER SO FAR THIS YEAR THAT HAVE UNDERPERFORMED RELATIVE
TO MODELS FOR THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER ANOTHER COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL US. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN A STRONG COLORADO LOW FORMING
IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND DEEPENS AS SEVERAL 500 MB SHORTWAVES
PHASE WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL US TRYING TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE LOWS CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPS IN THE
980S MB TO POSSIBLY THE HIGH 970S MB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A
STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES RISE
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MONDAY.
GIVEN THAT WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WITH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A STRONG INVERSION WITH CLOUD
COVER. IF THIS CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR IT WILL
BE TOUGH TO DESTABILIZE BUT IF THERE CAN BE ENOUGH CLEARING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD FORM
TO GET A FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ITSELF
WILL HAVE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG IT THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF THE SQUALL WITH AN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING PASSAGE PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG GUSTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
SIMILAR TO THIS CURRENT SYSTEM, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK
LOOKS COLD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 20S AND 30S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NYZ009.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...ES
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