206
FXUS61 KBGM 121823
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
223 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA, IN EFFECT
FROM 11 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 2 PM SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
FROM UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING TOMORROW AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW, ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL HAVING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.
2) ANOTHER WARM-UP EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING
ANOTHER LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING, AND TO
BRING MOSTLY SNOWFALL, WITH RAINFALL MIXING IN AS TEMPERATURES
WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL NY, MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER, UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE TUG HILL AREA AND NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM FRIDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE'S A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH AMOUNTS; THE DETERMINISTIC NBM SNOWFALL SHOWED A LARGE
FOOTPRINT OF AMOUNTS APPROACHING A FOOT, YET PROBABILITIES
REFLECTED MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED WHEN
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA, WHERE THE GREATEST
LIFT IS UNDER THE DGZ WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MOST LIKELY
RANGE OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED IS BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH VERY
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
EDGES OF THE COUNTY, WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ON TERRAIN
AMPLIFIES AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTHERN ONEIDA.
ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY-TURNING-WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES REFLECT LOW
POTENTIAL FOR REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SOME AREAS IN
CENTRAL NY COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A SIGNAL OF 30-50% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA, MAINLY FOR THE
FINGER LAKES AND HILLS IN NORTHERN CENTRAL NY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS IN PROBABILITIES FOR POTENTIAL WIND HEADLINES
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BRING A
BRIEF WARM-UP, WITH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH
50S/LOW 60S MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH, WHICH ALSO
BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH WEST-TO-EAST, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY DAWN TUESDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THIS FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW,
WHICH WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE LEFT ONCE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, SO
MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NYZ009.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...ES
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