065
FXUS61 KBGM 130019
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
819 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF NE PA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT; WITH SOME LOCALIZED DUSTING TO HALF
INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BEFORE 2 AM. SOME OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF AND 19Z NBM) ARE NUDGING
UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE 00Z GUIDANCE
TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND/OR HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING TOMORROW AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW, ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL HAVING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.
2) ANOTHER WARM-UP EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING
ANOTHER LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING, AND TO
BRING MOSTLY SNOWFALL, WITH RAINFALL MIXING IN AS TEMPERATURES
WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL NY, MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER, UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE TUG HILL AREA AND NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM FRIDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE'S A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH AMOUNTS; THE DETERMINISTIC NBM SNOWFALL SHOWED A LARGE
FOOTPRINT OF AMOUNTS APPROACHING A FOOT, YET PROBABILITIES
REFLECTED MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED WHEN
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA, WHERE THE GREATEST
LIFT IS UNDER THE DGZ WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MOST LIKELY
RANGE OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED IS BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH VERY
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
EDGES OF THE COUNTY, WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ON TERRAIN
AMPLIFIES AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTHERN ONEIDA.
ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY-TURNING-WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES REFLECT LOW
POTENTIAL FOR REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SOME AREAS IN
CENTRAL NY COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A SIGNAL OF 30-50% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA, MAINLY FOR THE
FINGER LAKES AND HILLS IN NORTHERN CENTRAL NY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS IN PROBABILITIES FOR POTENTIAL WIND HEADLINES
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BRING A
BRIEF WARM-UP, WITH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH
50S/LOW 60S MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH, WHICH ALSO
BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH WEST-TO-EAST, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY DAWN TUESDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THIS FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW,
WHICH WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE LEFT ONCE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, SO
MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
EVENING, BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY WITH
THEM; MAINLY AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF SYR, BGM AND ITH. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTH AND DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT. THEN, MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
RESTRICTIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS, WITH THE LOWEST RESTRICTIONS FOR OUR
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, REMAINING GUSTY
BETWEEN 10-20 KTS AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE DAY FROM ITH/BGM/ELM SOUTH
TO AVP. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT RME AND SYR THROUGH THE MORNING
OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. WINDY.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND. BREEZY TO WINDY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NYZ009.
DISCUSSION...KL/MJM
AVIATION...ES/MJM
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