250
FXUS61 KBGM 131100
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DIDN'T CHANGE SNOW AMOUNTS TOO MUCH WITH NORTHERN ONEIDA
BORDERING BETWEEN A LOW END WINTER STORM WARNING AND A HIGH END
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WIND ADVISORIES WHERE POSTED FOR THE
FINGER LAKES AND SOUTH INTO WESTERN PARTS OF NEPA WHERE THE
SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL LEAD TO A FEW 45+ MPH GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, AND POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON SNOW SQUALLS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL MAINLY AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND AREAS SOUTH OF IT, WITH THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL HAVING THE
BEST CHANCES FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATION.
2) ANOTHER WARMUP EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING
ANOTHER LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS, AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3) WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING EARLY WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN TYPICAL CLIPPER FASHION, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT CURRENTLY IS ON THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION SIDE OF THE STORM. THE CLIPPER WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE
TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING AHEAD OF THE LOW SO LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NEPA WILL SEE MORE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX
RATHER THAN ALL SNOW BUT HIGH ELEVATIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN
MOSTLY SNOW. ACROSS CNY INTO THE TUG HILL CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK, PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AND WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND INTO SYRACUSE MAY RAISE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WITH SOME
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW SQUALL TO
FORM ALONG IT.
UPSLOPE WINDS INTO THE TUG HILL WILL CREATE AN AREA OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AS THERE WILL BE A SHARP
GRADIENT FROM ONLY A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO JUST NORTH OF ROME NY TO
UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE TUG HILL. AS OF NOW, AN ADVISORY
WAS KEPT TO SEE HOW EFFICIENT THE UPSLOPE SNOW ENDS UP BEING
TODAY AS THERE IS GOOD BUST POTENTIAL IF THE BEST FORCING ONLY
LAST A FEW HOURS WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE AND THE SNOWFALL
RATES POST WARM FRONT ARE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO HAVE THE
BEST LIFT OUTSIDE OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WIND WILL BE A FACTOR TODAY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AS
SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS APPROACH 50 KNOTS AND WITH WINDS ALIGNING
WITH TERRAIN, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL 45 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES SO A WIND ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MID DAY
SATURDAY AS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND BEHIND THE LOW
AS THE CLIPPER DEPARTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS
THERE IS A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WOULD HELP TRANSFER SOME
OF THOSE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS IN THE CENTRAL US THIS
WEEKEND WITH A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY RAISING TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
WITH THE LOW DEEPENING DOWN INTO THE 980S MB AND POTENTIALLY THE
HIGH 970S MB, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE LOW OVER NY AND PA. RIGHT NOW THERE IS A STABLE
LAYER THAT WILL PREVENT MOST OF THIS WIND FROM MIXING DOWN
THOUGH WITH THE SOUTH WINDS, THE FINGER LAKES COULD ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME HIGHER WINDS WITH GOOD PROBABILITIES (>50%) OF ADVISORY
LEVEL (>45MPH) WIND GUSTS.
WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
MOVING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
LIKELY 60 TO 80 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR, THOUGH OVERALL CAPE WILL
BE LOW, LIKELY LESS THAN 100. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
AND LIKELY QUICK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
OVERCOME THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG WINDS TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MID NEXT WEEK WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK
BELOW -10C AND COULD APPROACH -20C FOR CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
REGION AND WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING, THERE WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING WHICH IS
PRETTY RARE FOR MID TO LATE MARCH IN THE VALLEYS AT LEAST.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
MIX OF SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE LOWEST RESTRICTIONS AT
THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
03Z SATURDAY, EXCEPT AT KRME AND KSYR.
INITIALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY LATER THIS
MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS THIS EVENING
AT KRME, KSYR, AND KBGM.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KRME AND KSYR IN THE MORNING.
SUNDAY...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS; OTHERWISE BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR PAZ038-043.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NYZ015>017-022>025.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BJG
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