270
FXUS61 KBGM 140547
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY, AND WIND ADVISORIES AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW, ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL EVENING SNOW SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY AFFECT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WITH THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL HAVING THE BEST CHANCES
TO SEE LARGER ACCUMULATIONS.
2) A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES,
STRONG WINDS, AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
3) WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING EARLY WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN
AND HAS PUSHED AN INITIAL WAVE OF SNOW INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PA AND NY. THIS INITIAL SNOW
WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR VALLEY AREAS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
EXPECTED. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE STRONG, WITH GUSTS OF
20-30KTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE FINGER LAKES AND WESTERN
TWIN TIERS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS
POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF THIS, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
SAT AFTERNOON.
WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPS WILL
WARM A LITTLE BIT. IT WILL NOT BE MUCH, BUT IT WILL INJECT SOME
WEAK CAPE ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
KICK OFF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD HAVE
SOME SNOW SQUALL CHARACTERISTICS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
VISIBILITY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND
6-7PM AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS, A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH, SWITCHING WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY AS COLD AIR SPILLS IN. GUSTS UP TO 45KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SPREADING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO COVER THE REST OF THE
CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE CENTER OF THE CLIPPER MOVES TO THE NE, NORTH OF THE CWA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP, IMPACTING MOST OF CNY. 2-5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY THANKS TO THE
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND UPSLOPE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MAIN SNOWFALL IMPACTS WILL BE
ACROSS N ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS N ONEIDA
COUNTY, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.
THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
US SUNDAY, BRINGING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO
MICHIGAN. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE 60S.
THE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 980MB AS IT MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH IS ABOUT 35MB DEEPER THAN AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW OVER NY AND PA. A SLIGHT STABLE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, BUT A SLIGHT WARMUP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD BRING STRONG, GUST WINDS TO THE AREA.
THIS COULD BE ESPECIALLY PREVALENT IN THE FINGER LAKES WHERE
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD PUSH WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 40-50MPH RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A LINE
OF STRONG SHOWERS TO POTENTIALLY A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, LIKELY 60 TO 80 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR, THOUGH OVERALL
CAPE WILL BE LOW, LIKELY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. STRONG CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD OVERCOME THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STRONG WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH THE LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THE QPF IS
CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT, SO ANAFRONTAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -15C TO -20C
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WOULD KICK OFF LATE SEASON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MOST
OF THE REGION. WITH THE INCREASING STRENGTH OF SOLAR RADIATION
AS WE CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH SPRING, DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS OF
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S
TO LOW 30S, WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BE ONE OF THE LAST, IF NOT LAST
BLAST OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION THIS SEASON. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW IS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING AT CNY TERMINALS. A BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS IS HEADED
TOWARDS AVP AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z SO A TEMPO
WAS ADDED BUT OTHERWISE AVP IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR AND WINDY.
SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST LONGER AT BGM, ITH, AND ELM BUT DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNRISE AROUND 12Z. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LAST THE
LONGEST AT SYR AND RME AS IS TYPICAL, AND THERE IS THE BEST
CHANCE AT IFR OR WORSE WITH THE SNOW FROM AROUND 9Z TO ABOUT
16Z AND TAPER OFF THEREAFTER. WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH SUNSET AROUND 0Z BEFORE
WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN,
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038-043.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ039-040-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ015>017-
022>025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ018-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...JTC/MJM
AVIATION...AJG
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