386
FXUS61 KBGM 140906
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
506 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY. SPC HAS A "MARGINAL RISK" (1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH MOST OF NORTHEAST PA IN A "SLIGHT RISK" (2 OUT OF 5).
KEY MESSAGES
1) BEHIND A DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL.
2) A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALONG WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE REGION YESTERDAY,
850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO -10C TO -12C. THIS, COMBINED
WITH A WESTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
WHILE THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW IS ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
(WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT), A FEW BRIEF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL NY AND
EVEN THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BRING GRADUAL CLEARING
SKIES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
US ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DEEPEN
TO NEAR 980MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH IS ABOUT
35MB DEEPER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW OVER NY AND
PA. A SLIGHT STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS
FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, BUT A SLIGHT WARMUP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BRING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA.
THIS COULD BE ESPECIALLY PREVALENT IN THE FINGER LAKES WHERE
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD PUSH WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 40-50MPH RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL BE VERY
HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LIKELY 60 TO 80 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR,
THOUGH OVERALL CAPE WILL BE LOW. SPC HAS A "MARGINAL RISK" (1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MOST OF NORTHEAST PA IN A
"SLIGHT RISK" (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -15C TO -18C ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WOULD
KICK OFF LATE SEASON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF
THE REGION. WITH THE INCREASING STRENGTH OF SOLAR RADIATION AS
WE CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH SPRING, DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS OF
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S, WITH A SLIGHT WARM-UP WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE
40S.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW IS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING AT CNY TERMINALS. A BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS IS HEADED
TOWARDS AVP AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z SO A TEMPO
WAS ADDED BUT OTHERWISE AVP IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR AND WINDY.
SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST LONGER AT BGM, ITH, AND ELM BUT DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNRISE AROUND 12Z. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LAST THE
LONGEST AT SYR AND RME AS IS TYPICAL, AND THERE IS THE BEST
CHANCE AT IFR OR WORSE WITH THE SNOW FROM AROUND 9Z TO ABOUT
16Z AND TAPER OFF THEREAFTER. WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH SUNSET AROUND 0Z BEFORE
WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN,
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...AJG
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