833
FXUS61 KBGM 142329
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
729 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FINGER LAKES REGION, IN
EFFECT FROM 5PM SUNDAY THROUGH 8AM MONDAY. CONFIDENCE INCREASING
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY,
WITH STORMS HAVING POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALONG WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DEEPEN NEAR TO 980 MB ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
SURGE INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY, WHERE 850
MB TEMPERATURES RISE FROM AROUND 0 C TO +10 C BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW OVER NY AND PA. HOWEVER, A SLIGHTLY STABLE LAYER WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
BUT A SLIGHT WARM-UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BRING STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS COULD BE ESPECIALLY PREVALENT IN
THE FINGER LAKES WHERE DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
PUSH WIND GUSTS INTO THE 40-50MPH RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR COUNTIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION FROM 5PM SUNDAY THROUGH
8AM MONDAY.
GOING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH IN THE EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON HOURS, PROGRESSING
WEST-TO-EAST. WITH SOME OF THE CAMS TEMPORAL RESOLUTION SHOWING
BITS OF THE MODELED FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THEIR RUNS,
THERE'S A POCKET OF 200-300 J/KG OF CAPE POKING INTO NE PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER THAT WILL AID IN FIRING SOME STORMS, BUT WHAT
MAY HELP THEM BECOME SEVERE IS THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 80
KNOTS. SPC HAS A "MARGINAL RISK" (1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH MOST OF NORTHEAST PA IN A "SLIGHT RISK" (2 OUT OF 5)
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THIS SYSTEM IS
TAPPING IN THE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
GULF, AS THE MAIN JET STREAM HAS A STRONG CONNECTION FROM THE
GULF UP INTO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT SOME PROBABILISTIC DATA,
THERE'S A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT, AS WELL AS
ANY DOWNPOURS FROM EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND WELL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
POST-FRONTAL, THERE WILL BE A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES GOING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BE FURTHER DISCUSSED IN KEY
MESSAGE 2.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -15C TO -18C ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WOULD
KICK OFF LATE SEASON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF
THE REGION. WITH THE INCREASING STRENGTH OF SOLAR RADIATION AS
WE CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH SPRING, DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS OF
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S, WITH A SLIGHT WARM-UP WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE
40S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ELM WILL BE MVFR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO START BUT SKIES
SHOULD SCATTER OUT THERE AND ALL TERMINALS WILL THEN BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND RESTRICTIONS TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BUT PICK
BACK UP OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION, WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH PEAK
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z MONDAY AT
SOME TERMINALS, THOUGH IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALSO EXPECTED.
MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE
LOCALIZED AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER SYR AND RME LATE ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; A LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ015>018-022-023-025-036-044.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...BTL
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