865
FXUS61 KBGM 150544
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FINGER LAKES REGION, IN
EFFECT FROM 5PM SUNDAY THROUGH 8AM MONDAY. CONFIDENCE INCREASING
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY,
WITH STORMS HAVING POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALONG WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DEEPEN NEAR TO 980 MB ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
SURGE INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY, WHERE 850
MB TEMPERATURES RISE FROM AROUND 0 C TO +10 C BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW OVER NY AND PA. HOWEVER, A SLIGHTLY STABLE LAYER WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
BUT A SLIGHT WARM-UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BRING STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS COULD BE ESPECIALLY PREVALENT IN
THE FINGER LAKES WHERE DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
PUSH WIND GUSTS INTO THE 40-50MPH RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR COUNTIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION FROM 5PM SUNDAY THROUGH
8AM MONDAY.
GOING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH IN THE EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON HOURS, PROGRESSING
WEST-TO-EAST. WITH SOME OF THE CAMS TEMPORAL RESOLUTION SHOWING
BITS OF THE MODELED FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THEIR RUNS,
THERE'S A POCKET OF 200-300 J/KG OF CAPE POKING INTO NE PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER THAT WILL AID IN FIRING SOME STORMS, BUT WHAT
MAY HELP THEM BECOME SEVERE IS THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 80
KNOTS. SPC HAS A "MARGINAL RISK" (1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH MOST OF NORTHEAST PA IN A "SLIGHT RISK" (2 OUT OF 5)
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THIS SYSTEM IS
TAPPING IN THE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
GULF, AS THE MAIN JET STREAM HAS A STRONG CONNECTION FROM THE
GULF UP INTO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT SOME PROBABILISTIC DATA,
THERE'S A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT, AS WELL AS
ANY DOWNPOURS FROM EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND WELL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
POST-FRONTAL, THERE WILL BE A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES GOING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BE FURTHER DISCUSSED IN KEY
MESSAGE 2.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -15C TO -18C ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WOULD
KICK OFF LATE SEASON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF
THE REGION. WITH THE INCREASING STRENGTH OF SOLAR RADIATION AS
WE CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH SPRING, DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS OF
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S, WITH A SLIGHT WARM-UP WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE
40S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT BUT A BAND OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 9Z AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH NY THAT COULD BRING
A PERIOD OF IFR VIS. AVP LOOKS TO MISS OUT ON THE SNOW BUT ALL
THE NY TERMINALS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE BAND FOR A LITTLE
BIT. WITH THE BAND MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY, TEMPOS WERE
USED FOR NOW BUT IF TIMING BECOMES MORE EXACT ONCE THE SNOW
FORMS, AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE TO MAKE IT MORE PRECISE.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE THE SNOW BAND MOVES NORTH WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORMING LATER TODAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL
DEVELOP STRONG LLWS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SO AVP COULD GET IT
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND IT WONT REACH RME UNTIL CLOSER TO 6Z. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS, THERE COULD STILL BE NEAR 5O KNOT
WIND DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOVE THE STABLE
INVERSION A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOW STRATUS AND
POTENTIALLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 0Z WITH
CONSERVATIVE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AVP FOR NOW, COULD FALL TO IFR
BY 6Z BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING SO DID NOT INTRODUCE IFR
YET. BGM MAY ALSO GET CLOSE TO IFR BEING AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND
FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON HILL TOPS.
OUTLOOK:
REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES
MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE
LOCALIZED AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER SYR AND RME LATE ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; A LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ015>018-022-023-025-036-044.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...AJG
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