157
FXUS61 KBGM 150740
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
340 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR 5PM THIS EVENING TO 8AM MONDAY
MORNING TO ALSO INCLUDE BRADFORD AND WYOMING COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST PA, AS WELL AS CHEMUNG AND TIOGA COUNTIES IN NY.
ALSO, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALONG WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING, BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE NORTH BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT; MAINLY LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. THAT BEING SAID, A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF STEUBEN
COUNTY MAY GET SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND PERHAPS AROUND ONE
INCH OF SNOW. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AND ACCUMULATE WILL
QUICKLY MELT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
GET INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
INCREASING WINDS. WHILE WINDS WILL START OFF CALM TODAY, AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO QUICKLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS EVENING. THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD (40-50 MPH GUSTS) ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION WITH DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, BUT SOME
OF THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO REACH PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER,
AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA (MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF BRADFORD AND WYOMING COUNTIES). THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WIND
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 5PM THIS EVENING TO 8AM MONDAY MORNING, WITH BRADFORD AND
WYOMING COUNTIES IN PA, AS WELL AS CHEMUNG AND TIOGA COUNTIES IN
NY ADDED TO THE ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, OUR REGION WILL BE
FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE 50S
AND 60S. AN INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT PASSAGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE LARGELY THROUGH THE AREA BY 8AM
MONDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE MORNING AFTER THAT SHOULD ACTUALLY
BE MAINLY DRY, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT PARTIAL CLEARING COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
GOING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, CLEARING OUR EASTERN-
MOST COUNTIES (POCONOS-CATSKILLS) BY THE EARLY EVENING. SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH (60-80 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR,
AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 90 KTS). AS IS COMMON THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR, INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. THAT BEING SAID,
EVEN THIS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT, WITH A POCKET OF
200-300 J/KG OF CAPE MODELED TO BE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA,
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME 0-1KM HELICITY PRESENT, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
ABUNDANT SHEAR, COULD RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. IF
SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WERE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE
TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE HIGHER. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME WITH THE BEST SETUP FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS BEING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR OUR REGION APPEARS TO BE
PRIMARILY FROM A QLCS, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES WITHIN THE
LINE POSSIBLE (OTHERWISE MAINLY STRAIGHT- LINE DAMAGING WINDS).
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, SPC NOW HAS A "SLIGHT RISK" (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST PA, EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA (LUZERNE COUNTY) IS
CLIPPED BY THE "ENHANCED RISK" (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5). MEANWHILE,
THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN A "MARGINAL
RISK" (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5).
FINALLY, WHILE THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE, THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHICH WILL BE ALSO AIDED BY PWATS AROUND OR JUST OVER
ONE INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC HAS MOST OF
THE REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A "MARGINAL RISK" FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT AND
SEVERE WEATHER, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RAPIDLY SPILL INTO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM AROUND +10C TO
AROUND -17C. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON
TUESDAY, BUT BEFORE THAT, A FLASH FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY REMAINING MOISTURE ON ROADS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
FREEZE UP. THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
AS FAR AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL GOES, AN INITIALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE INITIAL BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW NORTH OF THE REGION/CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, AS WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY, AND EVENTUALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY, THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TIMING OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEING MAINLY CENTERED AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT,
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL AROUND THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.
ASIDE FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. TUESDAYS
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S, WITH
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THEN HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S. MILDER AIR
WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSER
TO NORMAL (MAINLY IN THE 40S).
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT BUT A BAND OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 9Z AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH NY THAT COULD BRING
A PERIOD OF IFR VIS. AVP LOOKS TO MISS OUT ON THE SNOW BUT ALL
THE NY TERMINALS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE BAND FOR A LITTLE
BIT. WITH THE BAND MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY, TEMPOS WERE
USED FOR NOW BUT IF TIMING BECOMES MORE EXACT ONCE THE SNOW
FORMS, AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE TO MAKE IT MORE PRECISE.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE THE SNOW BAND MOVES NORTH WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORMING LATER TODAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL
DEVELOP STRONG LLWS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SO AVP COULD GET IT
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND IT WONT REACH RME UNTIL CLOSER TO 6Z. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS, THERE COULD STILL BE NEAR 5O KNOT
WIND DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOVE THE STABLE
INVERSION A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOW STRATUS AND
POTENTIALLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 0Z WITH
CONSERVATIVE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AVP FOR NOW, COULD FALL TO IFR
BY 6Z BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING SO DID NOT INTRODUCE IFR
YET. BGM MAY ALSO GET CLOSE TO IFR BEING AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND
FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON HILL TOPS.
OUTLOOK:
REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES
MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE
LOCALIZED AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER SYR AND RME LATE ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; A LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
PAZ038-043.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ015>018-022>025-036-044-055.
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...AJG
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