253
FXUS61 KBGM 151814
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
214 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. ALSO, THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FAST RUNOFF IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. PLACED MORE EMPHASIS ON THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DURING THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
SMALLER STREAM HEADWATER FLOODING.
3) RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WHERE 20-25 DEG F TEMPERATURE FALLS IN 3-5
HOURS ARE POSSIBLE...INCREASING THE RISK OF A FLASH FREEZE.
4) ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT REGION OF
NORTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS, AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH, ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ELEVATED LOCATIONS ABOVE 1400 FEET OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF NY, NORTH CENTRAL TIER OF PA AND THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS
OF THE FINGER LAKES.
THESE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING
SFC PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AN APPROACHING DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER WESTERN NY AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
STILL BE QUITE GUSTY EAST OF I- 81 DURING THIS TIME...GUSTING
30 TO 40 MPH. THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERIODIC GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY
AREAS WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OUR PRIMARY FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO POSSIBLY A
FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
NORTHEAST PA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY CONTINUE TO BE UNDER
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A VERY STRONG, AMPLIFYING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY AREA MONDAY MORNING WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO THE EAST TO AMPLIFY AND DRAW NORTHWARD A
VERY WARM AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT WILL OCCUR...850MB TEMPERATURE AROUND
+10 DEG C AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WILL CONTRAST SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE INCOMING AIR MASS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...850MB TEMPS AROUND -12 DEG C AND
SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S...TO CREATE A VERY STRONG SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL HELP FOCUS THE CONVECTION ON.
THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE INTENSE AS WELL. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE PUSHING TO THE
EAST WILL CREATE A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH AND ALSO
MOVE EASTWARD WITH A STRONG AREA OF PVA THE ENHANCE THE VERTICAL
LIFT. THE JET DYNAMICS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE TO ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/LIFT AS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST US IS WITHIN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 160KT JET STREAK.
THIS EVENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE INTENSE AMOUNT OF
SHEAR...WITH ROUGHLY 60-70 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM
SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 40 KT. ML CAPE VALUES ROUGHLY 100-200
J/KG COULD BE BUMPED UP A LITTLE HIGHER IF THE AREA CAN SCOUR
OUT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
THERE IS MORE CLEARING THAT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, SOME OF
THE CONVECTION THAT INITIATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
ALLOW FOR MORE CELLULAR STORM TYPES. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE FOCUS
WILL BE ON THE LINEAR CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
WEST CENTRAL PA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND LIFT TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NY
AND NE PA. THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE A SITUATION, IF THE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT INCREASE, WHERE THE LINE OF "STORMS" MAY
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING AND COULD BE MOSTLY LOW-
TOPPED.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LINE, BUT
EMBEDDED QUICK-SPIN UP TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
EXTREME AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AFTER 8-10 PM.
THE ADDITIONAL THREAT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY
LEAD TO SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF
FACTORS THAT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT...NAMELY THE FAST
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY LOW RESIDENCE TIME
OF HEAVY RAIN/DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE
HEAVIEST PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO BECOME SITUATED WELL TO
OUR EAST WITH NE PA AND CENTRAL NY WITHIN AN AREA OF PWS AROUND
0.75 TO 1 INCH. HOWEVER, IF LOCATIONS EAST OF I-81 SEE A ROUND
OF CONVECTION IN THE MORNING AND THEN MORE RAINFALL WITH THE
LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, THE TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN, COMBINED WITH SATURATED
SOILS AND EVEN SOME LINGERING SNOW PACK MELTING, COULD CAUSE
ISSUES IN SOME LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT
IS LIMITED, BUT WE DO REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK FROM
WPC.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A VERY COLD AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AND CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP
20-25 DEG F IN A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW (BETWEEN 8PM AND MIDNIGHT).
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR A FLASH FREEZE IN THIS SITUATION GIVEN
HOW QUICKLY THE AIR TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A RAIN-PRODUCING
FRONT. A LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS SITUATION WILL BE RELATED TO
THE FACT THAT THE GROUND TEMPERATURES OVERALL ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN EVEN A COUPLE WEEKS AGO. ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE 50S OR HIGHER ON MONDAY GIVEN 2M SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY THROUGH
MORNING AND DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT
THE WET ROADS BEFORE THE COLD AIR REALLY SETTLES IN.
WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID THE THREAT IS LIKELY FAIRLY LOW,
BUT NOT ZERO. SO, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR ICY
SPOTS ON THE ROADS TUE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY BUT BE VERY DISORGANIZED IN NATURE EVEN THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ADVECTING
IN WILL RANGE FROM -16 TO -19 DEG C AND INITIALLY WORK WITH A
MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO TO PLACE SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THE PRIMARY
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NWLY,
WHICH WILL FAVOR AN UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTION WITH ONTARIO INTO
LOCATIONS ALONG THE NY THRUWAY BETWEEN SYRACUSE AND UTICA. THE
MIXED LAYER DEPTH WILL BE MODEST, AROUND 8 KFT WITH A WEAK TO
MODERATE LIFT WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT THE
EVENT IS STILL BEYOND 48 HOURS. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME
FRAME A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE
AREA. LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND A DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A MIX OF MVFR/FUEL-ALT RESTRICTIONS, BUT IFR
OR WORSE CIGS CAN MIX IN, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING AT BGM AND
ELM.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD, STRONG, SOUTHERLY LLWS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS
THIS EVENING. THE LLWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE STARTING TO
EASE.
SHORTLY AFTER THE 18Z TAF COMES TO AN END, WE'LL BE WATCHING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO START TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
THE WESTERN TERMINALS, BRINGING A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAT
WILL SPREAD EAST WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS; SOME STORMS CAN BE SEVERE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE
LOCALIZED AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER SYR AND RME LATE ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; A LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
PAZ038-043.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ015>018-022>025-036-044-055.
DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...DK
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