794
FXUS61 KBGM 161807
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
207 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE WESTERN TWIN TIERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 2PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SEPARATE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA, WHICH WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM 2PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EARLY EVENING,
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT.
2) THERE WILL BE A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF A
FLASH FREEZE.
3) ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NORTHEAST PA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY CONTINUE TO BE UNDER
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. OUR REGION WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR FOLLOWING A WARM FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT WILL OCCUR WILL CONTRAST
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE INCOMING AIR MASS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM, 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 20S. THIS WILL CREATE A VERY STRONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC
ZONE THAT WILL HELP FOCUS THE CONVECTION ON.
THIS EVENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE INTENSE AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, WITH ROUGHLY 60-70KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM
SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 40KTS. ML CAPE VALUES ROUGHLY 100-200
J/KG COULD BE BUMPED UP A LITTLE HIGHER IF THE AREA CAN SCOUR
OUT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
THERE IS MORE CLEARING THAT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, SOME OF
THE CONVECTION THAT INITIATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
ALLOW FOR MORE CELLULAR STORM TYPES. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE FOCUS
WILL BE ON THE LINEAR CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
WEST CENTRAL PA LATE THIS MORNING AND LIFT TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE A SITUATION, IF THE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT INCREASE, WHERE THE LINE OF "THUNDERSTORMS"
MAY NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING AND COULD BE MOSTLY
LOW-TOPPED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE
LINE, BUT EMBEDDED QUICK-SPIN UP TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AFTER 8-10 PM.
THE ADDITIONAL THREAT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY
LEAD TO SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AS PWATS
WILL BE AROUND ONE INCH. THAT BEING SAID, THE CONVECTIVE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE, SO THAT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
THE USUAL POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS STILL COULD SEE SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
FINALLY, SEPARATE FROM THE CONVECTIVE LINE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ACROSS SOME OF THE
ELEVATED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, NORTHERN TIER OF PA,
AND THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF THE FINGER LAKES. THESE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE MAINLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE THE BRIEFLY
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DUE TO
REMAINING GUSTY WINDS, THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO 2PM, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME COUNTIES MAY
BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED FROM THE ADVISORY BEFORE THEN.
THEN POST-FRONTAL GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS. IT IS ACROSS
THOSE AREAS THAT A SEPARATE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
2PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AND CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP
20-25 DEGREES IN A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW (BETWEEN 8PM AND MIDNIGHT).
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR A FLASH FREEZE IN THIS SITUATION GIVEN
HOW QUICKLY THE AIR TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A RAIN-PRODUCING
FRONT. A LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS SITUATION WILL BE RELATED TO
THE FACT THAT THE GROUND TEMPERATURES OVERALL ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN EVEN A COUPLE WEEKS AGO. REMAINING GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING MAY ALSO HELP TO DRY OUT THE WET ROADS BEFORE
THE COLD AIR REALLY SETTLES IN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO -16 TO -18C.
THE WIND ORIENTATION WILL INITIALLY BE WESTERLY, OR EVEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INITIALLY BE LOCATED NORTH OF ONEIDA
COUNTY/CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER AS THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY,
WHICH WILL FAVOR AN UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTION AND ALLOW FOR THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FIRST
INTO ONEIDA COUNTY, THEN TOWARDS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR TUESDAY
EVENING. WITH THE BAND LIKELY BEING PRESENT LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT (RATHER THAN MID-DAY TUESDAY DURING
THE STRONG MID-MARCH SUN ANGLE), SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR/FUEL-ALT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHOWERS STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE CAN BE BRIEF VISBY DROPS TO
IFR, BUT MOST OBS SO FAR HAVE BEEN AROUND 3-4 MILES WITH THESE
SHOWERS, AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
AROUND AVP. A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z WITH STRONG WINDS
AND A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE CAN
PRODUCE 35 TO 45 KNOT WIND GUSTS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY WITH
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO SNOW QUICKLY. THE SNOW
WON'T LAST LONG AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION BY AROUND 06-07Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AROUND RME AND SYR. SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE ERIE COULD POTENTIALLY REACH ELM AND BGM AS WELL. LINGERING
LLWS AT AVP AND BGM IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME
MORE LOCALIZED AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER SYR AND RME LATE ON
TUESDAY. WITH WINDS STAYING GUSTY, BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR; A LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION; LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ038.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ043-044-047-
048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ009-037.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-
036-044-055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NYZ022.
DISCUSSION...BJG/BJT
AVIATION...DK
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