397
FXUS61 KBGM 170636
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
236 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ONEIDA COUNTY
FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR ONEIDA COUNTY
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING ABOUT 40 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS TAKEN HOLD, AND
THAT COLD AIR MASS PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE WIND ORIENTATION WILL INITIALLY BE WESTERLY, AND ALTHOUGH WE
MAY SEE A FEW AREA WIDE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING, THE MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER TODAY, AND
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL FAVOR AN
UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTION AND ALLOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO ONEIDA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY
ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS BAND WILL EXACTLY SET UP, BUT THE MOST LIKELY SPOT AT
THIS TIME IS ACROSS CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY AND THUS THE WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.
THE HEAVY SNOW BAND MAY ALSO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ONONDAGA
AND MADISON COUNTIES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE THEM IN ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT, BUT THERE
IS POTENTIAL THAT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES LATER TODAY. FINALLY, RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
RIDGING WILL START TO TAKE HOLD ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK. BY
THURSDAY, HIGHS WILL CLIMB CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THIS WILL ONLY BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE SNOW SHIELD HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH RME
HOLDING ONTO STEADY SNOW UNTIL AROUND 07Z. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, WITH
ELM/ITH/SYR HAVING A CHANCE TO SEE BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SHOWERS IMPACTING A TERMINAL
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR IN THE TAFS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING UP
AROUND SUNRISE, WITH 25-30KT GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
WHERE SYR AND RME SHOULD SEE RESTRICTIONS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY, MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST BUT COULD FALL TO IFR AND LOWER IF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SET UP OVER THE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IFR IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME
MORE LOCALIZED AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER SYR AND RME LATE ON
TUESDAY. WITH WINDS STAYING GUSTY, BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR; A LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION; LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038-039-043.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ009-037.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015>018-
022>025-036-044-055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ015>018-022>025-036-044-045-055-056.
DISCUSSION...MPK
AVIATION...JTC
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