916
FXUS61 KBGM 212345
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
745 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED FOR ALL OF CNY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER
AS THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SCATTER OUT. SPC'S MARGINAL RISK
WAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER TOMORROW WITH A
SLIVER OF SLIGHT RISK INTRODUCED IN FAR SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGS STEADY RAIN
NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO NEPA,
SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS.
2) AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH FREQUENT CLIPPER SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FREQUENT TEMPERATURE
SWINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH
A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO CNY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING IN WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING REGION WIDE,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING WARM AIR ALOFT SO THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FOR THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHWARD IS IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL RH
FIELDS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE HEATING FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CLEARING WILL BE IN SOUTHERN NEPA. IT WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR OUR AREA BUT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
OF NEPA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND
6.5 C/KM AND 7.5 C/KM. WITH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 55 TO 60
KNOTS, SOME LARGER HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS WITH
ELEVATED CAPE GETTING UP AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. WIND THREAT IS
UNCERTAIN AS THAT WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE SIZE OF THE COLD
POOL THAT FORMS IN THE STORM TO BREAK THROUGH THE STABLE LAYER
OR IF THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SUN FOR STORMS TO BE MORE SURFACE
BASED. CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK IS FOR A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK, WE
WILL BE ON THE NE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WITH FREQUENT 500 MB
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN NEW ENGLAND UNDER A TROUGH, WE
COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIX IN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CNY AND CATSKILLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ANY OF THESE SHORTWAVES. FOR THE MOST PART, GIVEN THE
HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES FALLING ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE LOWS,
PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. THERE IS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING TO <-10C, AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS GEFS
AND EPS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN -10C AT 850 GET OVER
50 TO 75% FOR CNY INTO THE TUG HILL.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SCATTER OUT BUT AS THE WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET FORMING, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN BEFORE 6Z. LLWS IS LIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS EVENING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY OBSERVED WITH IT SO FAR SO THE TAFS
CATEGORY WERE RAISED TO MOSTLY VFR WITH BGM POTENTIALLY SEEING
MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS BEING AT ELEVATION.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND RAIN MOVE INTO NY IN THE
MORNING WITH SYR, ITH, AND RME SEEING MORE STEADY RAIN WHILE ELM
AND BGM SEE MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
WARM FRONT. AVP WILL ESCAPE MOST OF THE MORNING SHOWERS BUT
GIVEN THAT IT WILL GET WARMER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z. ELM AND BGM ALSO HAVE THUNDER CHANCES
BUT THEY ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS FAR OUT IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; LOW CHANCE FOR OFF-AND-ON
SNOW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH
MORNING FOG.
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY... WARM FRONT PUSHES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...AJG
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