193
FXUS61 KBGM 220553
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
153 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED FOR ALL OF CNY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER
AS THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SCATTER OUT. SPC'S MARGINAL RISK
WAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER SUNDAY WITH A
SLIVER OF SLIGHT RISK INTRODUCED IN FAR SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGS STEADY RAIN
IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA, SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS.
2) AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH FREQUENT CLIPPER SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FREQUENT TEMPERATURE
SWINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO CNY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING IN WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING REGION WIDE, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING WARM AIR ALOFT SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
SOUTHWARD IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF CLOUDS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEATING FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING WILL BE IN SOUTHERN NEPA. IT WILL BE
HARD TO OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
OUR AREA BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST OF NEPA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND 7.5 C/KM. WITH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 55 TO
60 KNOTS, SOME LARGER HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS WITH
ELEVATED CAPE GETTING UP AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. WIND THREAT IS
UNCERTAIN AS THAT WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE SIZE OF THE COLD POOL
THAT FORMS IN THE STORM TO BREAK THROUGH THE STABLE LAYER OR IF
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SUN FOR STORMS TO BE MORE SURFACE BASED.
CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK IS FOR A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
LUZERNE COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK, WE
WILL BE ON THE NE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WITH FREQUENT 500 MB
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN NEW ENGLAND UNDER A TROUGH, WE
COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIX IN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CNY AND CATSKILLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ANY OF THESE SHORTWAVES. FOR THE MOST PART, GIVEN THE
HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES FALLING ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE LOWS,
PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. THERE IS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING TO <-10C, AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS GEFS
AND EPS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN -10C AT 850 GET OVER
50 TO 75% FOR CNY INTO THE TUG HILL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION BEFORE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WIDESPREAD RAIN. CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO
FUEL ALT/MVFR PRIOR BY LATE MORNING AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMING IFR/LIFR. SYR AND RME WILL IMPROVE BACK TO
AT LEAST FUEL ALT AFTER 00Z MONDAY. AVP WILL ALSO SEE CEILINGS
FALL BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED THERE AS WELL BEGINNING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR AVP THIS AFTERNOON. AT ALL
TERMINALS, VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO BE REDUCED AT TIMES. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT, THERE MAY BE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW AT ITH, ELM, AND BGM BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE SNOW AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH, WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT 2000 FT AGL, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
WITH MORNING FOG.
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY... WARM FRONT PUSHES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
RAINSHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BTL
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