599
FXUS61 KBGM 221049
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON IS TRENDING MORE LIMITED, THOUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY TO
POCONOS STILL HAVE A MARGINAL RISK. THERE IS A SOMEWHAT
INCREASING CONCERN THAT WET ROADS LATE TONIGHT COULD DEVELOP
PATCHY ICE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY, WHETHER OR NOT RAIN ENDS AS A
MIX OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THOUGH MILDER TODAY, WAVES OF RAIN DEVELOP AS A FRONTAL ZONE
DROPS THROUGH THE REGION, FIRST IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THEN
PRESSING SOUTH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR IN NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE FRONT PASSES THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING, WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
2) RAIN MAY FINISH OVERNIGHT WITH A BRIEF VERY LIGHT MIX OF SNOW,
DRIZZLE, AND PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN IN POCKETS FROM THE
TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD. EVEN IF PRECIPITATION ENDS, ROADS WET FROM
PRIOR RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP PATCHY ICE TOWARDS DAWN, POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
3) COOL YET GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, BUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE WAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IT WILL BE MILDER TODAY AS A WARM FRONTAL ZONE HAS ENTERED THE
REGION, BUT THIS WILL BE TEMPERED BY DEVELOPING WAVES OF RAIN.
THE FRONT WILL HANG UP TO CAUSE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM
40S-NEAR 50 NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY, TO 50S-NEAR 60 IN FINGER
LAKES TO SOUTHERN TIER NY, TO MAINLY 60S INTO PENNSYLVANIA
ESPECIALLY THE WYOMING VALLEY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
ALOFT BUT NEAR SURFACE LEVELS WILL START SCOOPING UNDERNEATH TO
DRAG COOLER AIR NORTH TO SOUTH WITH TIME. WE GET INTO THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET WHICH WILL KEEP FORCED ASCENT GOING ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT, RESULTING IN ANAFRONT-STYLE RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, TO THE SOUTH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AT LEAST ALOFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY,
BUT A STORM CORE OR TWO ALOFT COULD STILL REACH THE WYOMING
VALLEY WITH DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL ENSEMBLES ABOUT A 40-60 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM
THE WYOMING VALLEY INTO THE POCONOS, AND AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF
FLOODING ROADS/POOR DRAINAGE AREA CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
THERE. HOWEVER, OTHERWISE QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, AS RAIN
GRADUALLY ENDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER, A BRIEF MIX OF
SNOW-RAIN-DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR ON THE
BACK SIDE AS IT FINISHES UP. EVEN IF PRECIPITATION TOTALLY
CEASES THOUGH, ROADS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WET AS READINGS FROM THE
TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
TOWARDS DAWN. FARTHER SOUTH, IT WILL BE LIMITED MORE TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS MEANS PATCHY ICE MAY OCCUR, IMPACTING THE
EARLY MORNING COMMUTE. EXPOSED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES,
OVERPASSES, AND CAR TOPS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO PATCHY ICE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
OTHER THAN POSSIBLE SLICK SPOTS EARLY, MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS OF 30S TO LOWER 40S, FOLLOWED BY UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND 40S. HOWEVER, THE REST OF THE
WEAK WILL REMAIN A BUSIER PATTERN WITH PASSING WAVES AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BOUNCE AROUND, REACHING WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY, ONLY FOR A SHOWERY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING, BUT WITH
DRY CONDITIONS, IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
GROUND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FORM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH IFR EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
BE REDUCED AT TIMES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT AVP FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT THOUGH AS IT DOES, IT MAY
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR ITH, SYR, AND
RME AS COLD AIR FILLS IN. WHILE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TONIGHT, AVP, SYR, AND RME WILL BE THE
TERMINALS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FUEL ALT/MVFR BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH, WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT 2000 FT AGL, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
WITH MORNING FOG.
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY... WARM FRONT PUSHES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
RAINSHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...BTL
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