807
FXUS61 KBGM 221725
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
125 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
ADD MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE.
2) COLD AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES INTO THE FINGER LAKES
INTO MONDAY.
3) GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.
4) NEXT ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
COLD WEEKEND AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF MIXING OF THE WARM
AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS OF 1 PM ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NY. MULTIPLE WAVES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THIS MORNING, WHICH HAVE KEPT A NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM
OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING FROM WRN NY EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
A COUPLE WEAK STORM HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER, BUT THERE HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP THEM
GOING.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH, INTO NORTHEAST PA, HAVE MANAGED TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT MORE CLEARING AND PRODUCE TEMPERATURE INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OH INTO WRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST/SE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY WEAK, WITH THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE BEING A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NY AND A 120 KT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS TO
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST PA INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE STORM
MODE AND INTENSITY, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS, BUT THE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANALYSIS CONTINUE TO POINT AT STORMS MOSTLY
INITIATING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING
ROOTED IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER AS THEY GROW UPSTREAM TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR INITIATING LOOKS TO BE AROUND 3-4
PM...WITH STORMS TRACKING TO THE E/SE THROUGH AROUND 7-8 PM
BEFORE EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
LAYER OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND COLD AIR ALOFT THAT COULD ALLOW FOR THE
PRIMARY THREAT TO BE HAIL. HOWEVER, AS THE STORMS GROW AND
POTENTIALLY TAP INTO THE SURFACE INSTABILITY, THERE IS LIKELY
MORE OF A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS LATER IN THE EVENT.
WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN
AREAS OF THE WYOMING VALLEY. THE E-W ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE RIDING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THIS FEATURE COULD ALLOW FOR STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO TRAIN
BRIEFLY OVER THE SAME AREAS BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES OUT.
WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES AND HOW
QUICKLY/SLOWLY THE BROADER SYSTEM EXITS THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY AND ALLOW THE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO MIX OF SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE EXITING WARM LAYER ALOFT
DURING THIS TIME AND ALLOW FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW BEFORE THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT ICING OR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS THE 850MB LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
BUILDS QUICKLY EAST A FAVORABLE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET
UP OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30 MPH AT TIMES, MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON
EVENING. THE FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -9 TO -10 DEG C
AND STEADY N/NW FLOW OFF OF ONTARIO, THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
AN INCH OR LESS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...MAINLY GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION (LESS THAN 12 HOURS)...AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
MIXED LAYER (AROUND 7 KFT OR LESS).
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
AFTER A BRIEF MID-WEEK BREAK. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING, INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORT WAVES THAT COULD ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY LACKING WITH THESE
WAVES AND THE PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY MUTED AND NOT AMPLIFIED,
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND THE ENVIRONMENT
MOSTLY STABLE. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST GOING INTO SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING, BUT WITH
DRY CONDITIONS, IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
GROUND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FORM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH IFR EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
BE REDUCED AT TIMES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT AVP FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT THOUGH AS IT DOES, IT MAY
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR ITH, SYR, AND
RME AS COLD AIR FILLS IN. WHILE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TONIGHT, AVP, SYR, AND RME WILL BE THE
TERMINALS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FUEL ALT/MVFR BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH, WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT 2000 FT AGL, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
WITH MORNING FOG.
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY... WARM FRONT PUSHES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
RAINSHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...BTL
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