045
FXUS61 KBGM 230528
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
128 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING MAY CAUSE PATCHY ICE
TO FORM WHERE ROADS ARE STILL WET FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA, WITH SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE.
2) COLDER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
3) AFTER WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK, OUR NEXT MAIN
ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, POSSIBLY
ENDING AS MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONT HAS PRESSED TO OUR SOUTH, BUT FORCED ASCENT IS STILL
OCCURRING BEHIND IT COURTESY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE FINAL WAVE OF RAIN WILL CARRY
THROUGH PRIMARILY NORTHEAST PA AND BORDERING COUNTIES IN NY
BEFORE DAWN. HOWEVER, COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE
SURFACE, UNDERNEATH THE TRANSLATING WAVE. THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN
COULD MIX WITH FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. EVEN AS
PRECIPITATION STOPS, WET ROADWAYS COULD DEVELOP PATCHY ICE AS
TEMPERATURES ECLIPSE THE FREEZING MARK, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NEW
YORK TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. SPOTTY FREEZING
DRIZZLE COULD ALSO OCCUR AS DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS YET SATURATED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, AND EXPOSED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES,
WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SEEING PATCHY ICE. WITH THE STRONGER
DAYLIGHT OF LATE MARCH, PATCHY ICE CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY ABATE
AS MORNING CARRIES ON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
AS TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S DURING THE DAY
UNDER A STUBBORN CLOUD DECK, FOLLOWED BY 20S FOR TONIGHT; EVEN
UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE 850MB LOW MOVES OFF
THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM OUR WEST. THIS SET UP
FAVORS SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS
KICKING OFF A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS, MAINLY WEST OF I-81 IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, WILL
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING AS THE MOISTURE LAYER
WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW. GUSTS WILL TYPICALLY REACH 15-25 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER ACROSS THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, ONLY TO
FLIP CHILLY AGAIN BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY AFTER ANOTHER RAINY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE TUESDAY,
STARTING OFF WELL BELOW FREEZING, YET A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
30S-UPPER 40S RANGE. WE THEN GET INTO RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL
BOOST US INTO UPPER 40S-MID 50S WEDNESDAY, AND EVEN 50S-LOWER
60S THURSDAY. HOWEVER, A FRONTAL ZONE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, WITH SHORTWAVES AND
EVENTUAL MAIN LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THOSE WILL DETERMINE BOTH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHILE BETTER SOLIDIFYING TEMPERATURE
DETAILS. IN THE END, A PRIMARY BATCH OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, POSSIBLY ENDING AS
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING BACK IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FIGURED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND FROM A CANADIAN AIR MASS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER AVP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THESE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS,
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY CLIP BGM. AS TEMPERATURES FALL, THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT MOST OF THE CNY
TERMINALS. RESTRICTIONS WILL VARY FROM IFR TO MVFR EARLY THIS
MORNING, THOUGH SOME FOG MAY LEAD TO LIFR AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY THOUGH ONLY SYR, RME, AND
AVP WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THESE WILL SET UP SO THERE IS NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, ITH, SYR, AND POSSIBLY BGM LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BE EVALUATED MORE AND
SOME TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
WHILE FAIRLY LIGHT NOW, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
MORNING AND BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PEAK GUSTS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH
MORNING FOG.
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE FROM THE NORTH
WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY... WARM FRONT PUSHES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...BTL
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