106
FXUS61 KBGM 231830
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT, ACCUMULATIONS ARE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE BUT A WIDESPREAD DUSTING TO AN INCH IS EXPECTED
NOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION DOWN INTO THE TWIN TIERS.
2) A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE FRIDAY LEADING TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST WITH
COLD NW FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB FALL FROM AROUND -10C TO -15C TONIGHT AS
A COLD POCKET OF AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AFTER SUNSET. THE FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS
SHORT, ORGANIZED BANDING IS UNLIKELY, BUT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT FROM THE FINGER LAKES
REGION DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT, WITH
MOST AREAS JUST GETTING A DUSTING. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE
EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL ABOUT 8 AM
TOMORROW WHERE THE 850 MB RH IS >80% AND TEMPERATURES BELOW -12C
TO GET DENDRITE FORMATION. TOMORROW, FLOW ALOFT FINALLY BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY TO EVEN A BIT SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL HELP THE
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. DESPITE 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 0C
TOMORROW, THE STRONG SUN AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS UNDER A LARGE, LOW AMPLITUDE
500 MB TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE SO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY
REGION WIDE. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ADVECTS IN, BUT BY THAT TIME THE WARM FRONT
MAY BE NORTH OF OUR REGION. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE KEPT
IN CNY AND NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY IS WARM WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES OVER 10C THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RH IS INCREASING
SO THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AS WELL.
THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER STRONG LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT LIKELY MOVES THROUGH AS THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MOST MODELS HAVE THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY SO THAT WOULD LIMIT MOST THUNDER
POTENTIAL BUT THE LATER IN THE DAY, THE MORE INSTABILITY COULD
BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS OVER 60 KNOTS SO IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM WITH THE LATER PASSAGE, THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HAVE A VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVE
IN FOR LATE MARCH. 850 MB TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES OF <-15C ARE
OVER 50% FOR CNY AND EVEN GETTING TO NEAR 30% ALL THE WAY SOUTH
INTO NEPA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THIS AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. LUCKILY WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW, THE COLD BEGINS TO VACATE THE REGION BY LATER IN
THE DAY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SYR/ITH/BGM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST TERMINALS, WINDS WILL
BECOME CALMER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE FROM THE NORTH
WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY...WARM FRONT PUSHES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...ES
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