474
FXUS61 KBGM 250612
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS AND GUSTS WERE INCREASED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
2) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
3) HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES BECOME
MORE SEASONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVECTS WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THANKS TO
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS. A COUPLE OF POP UP SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE BEING NORTH, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD, ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S. BEING IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES THEN CLIMB INTO THE 60S
ON THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS IN THE MORNING, THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE STABLE DURING
THIS TIME, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS FIRST ROUND
OF SHOWERS.
THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS IN LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SHOWING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR. GIVEN
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED, THE
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY OVERDONE BUT IF CORRECT, THERE WOULD BE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. IN COMPARISON, THE GFS HAS NO INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION. WHILE THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT,
SEVERE STORMS ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
LATER TIMING. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AS THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA EXTENDS
INTO THE REGION WHILE THE SEVERE RISK IS FOCUSED ON PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. NBM GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW, ESPECIALLY IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION, SO WINDS AND GUSTS WERE BUMPED UP ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT EXITS THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. AS PRECIPITATION ENDS BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR WINTRY MIX THAT COULD
RESULT IN A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW FOR CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES THEN
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND THOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY ON SATURDAY.
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS
WELL. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRYING OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO TREND WARMER ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AS SOME MODELS BRING A SYSTEM THROUGH ON MONDAY WHILE
OTHERS STAY DRY UNTIL AROUND MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE 06Z TAF PACKAGE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE MINOR
RESTRICTIONS FOR THE NY TERMINALS.
THURSDAY...AGAIN MOSTLY VFR MORNING TO AT LEAST MIDDAY, THEN A
RAINY COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS.
SNOW MAY MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY MORNING...LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTION POSSIBLE EARLY,
BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...KL
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