757
FXUS61 KBGM 260508
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
108 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS AND GUSTS AGAIN WERE INCREASED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.
2) A PASSING SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
3) HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
BECOME MORE SEASONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 49S
TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL FILL IN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES OUR REGION. A COUPLE
OF POP UP SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NY AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH OTHERWISE MOST OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY. MILDER LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF OUR REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM,
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE DRY
PERIODS IN THE MORNING, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE STABLE DURING THIS TIME, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WITH THE THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH IN THE EVENING, INSTABILITY IS LACKING. IF ANY STRONG STORMS
DO MATERIALIZE MAINLY EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SPC
KEPT GENERAL THUNDER OVER MOST OF OUR AREA WHILE THE SEVERE RISK IS
FOCUSED ON PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. WPC EXPANDED THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER OUR REGION. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. USED A BLEND OF NBM WITH NBM 90TH TO BUMP UP WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW OR A MIX BRIEFLY BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TO TWO ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH LINGERING GUSTS. SINGLE DIGIT WIND
CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, THOUGH A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL NY ON SATURDAY. WEST-NOTHWEST
FLOW COULD ALSO TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY.
OUTSIDE OF THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT, WITH A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME VARIABILITY IN MODEL IN GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AS
EARLY AS MONDAY, OTHERS DELAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL
MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARMER
SIDE WITH HIGHS RANGING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS TIME,
IT IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH THE
RAIN, WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD TOMORROW EVENING.
THERE IS ALSO SOME BORDERLINE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
TONIGHT AS A BROAD 40-50 KNOT LOW- LEVEL JET DEVELOPS LEADING
TO 30-40 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS AT THE MAJORITY OF
TERMINALS
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY NIGHT...A RAINY COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIKELY MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS. SNOW MAY MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY MORNING...LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTION POSSIBLE EARLY,
BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/ES
AVIATION...KL
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