686
FXUS61 KBGM 262316
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
716 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS WITH
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THE LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND FLURRIES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NY INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE ALSO ADJUSTED AS THE NBM
LOOKED TO HAVE THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT RUSHING IN TOO
FAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE PA LATER TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS THEN MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.
2) OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS LARGELY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
3) THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WHICH CAN LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A DRY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE, BUILDING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL SIGNAL THE START OF CHANGES MOVING
INTO OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AS THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA, A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAINFALL WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 08Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ADVECTING IN
MUCH COLDER AIR AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM 5C TO 10C AROUND
00Z, TO 0C TO -7C BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS THIS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN,
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CAN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTH BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
INITIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY.
SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CLIPPING
STEUBEN AND BRADFORD COUNTIES. LOOKING AT THE MESOANALYSIS,
THERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE SURFACE OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY, ABOUT
300 TO 500 J/KG OF DCAPE, STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50 TO 70
KNOTS, STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C TO 8.5C/KM BUT POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER LEAVES THE THREAT
FOR STRONGER STORMS, LET ALONE THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL, LITTLE
TO BE DESIRED. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR QUITE
HIGH, OVER 50 KTS, THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY LACKING. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
FAVOR TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WHAT INSTABILITY THERE IS FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY.
IN ADDITION, WPC HAS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY ON SOUTH UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
REMAIN WET FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION EVENTS, AND A GENERAL 0.50"
TO 1.00" OF RAINFALL IS EXPECT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.00" AND 1.25" AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN MINOR HYDRO ISSUES, MAINLY IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND WHERE PONDING IS COMMON. RIVERS AND
STREAMS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT STREAM FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, CONTINUED FALLING 850MB
TEMPERATURES (BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN -15C AND -17C FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY) AND POCKETS OF INCREASED MOISTURE QUICKLY
SWINGING THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PASSING BY TO THE NORTH SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL NY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED OVER ONEIDA COUNTY, WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
CAN LEAD TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S TO THE NORTH
TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NE PA. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE
EVEN COLDER IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL
HELP BRING IN WARMER AIR AS THE COLD AIR MASS RETREATS
NORTHWARD. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS, MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AND BEYOND. THE THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, PLENTY OF MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED
FROM THE GULF INTO ANY SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
WITH THE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO AN ALREADY WET
ENVIRONMENT, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS FOR
RISES, WHICH ARE SHOWN IN SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND WARMER MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 60S WITH SOME VALLEY AREAS
LIKELY MAKING A RUN AT 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND LIKELY IFR RESTRICTIONS. AVP WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 4Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT, LOW IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE AND THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/DK
AVIATION...MPK
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