109
FXUS61 KBGM 271728
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
128 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR A SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COLDER INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY THIS
WEEKEND.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OUT
TO SEA. MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL WILL ONLY MAX OUT
IN THE 30S AND 40S TODAY AS A COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH
OVER THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
20 TONIGHT, THOUGH WITH WINDS GRADUALLY PICKING UP, WIND CHILLS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF
WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
THESE WAVES WILL HELP SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OFF-
AND-ON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY. TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT, RANGING FROM
A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE STUCK
IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY AND FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE POSITIVE IS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS BY
SUNDAY AND THE COLDER AIR RETREATS NORTHWARD. WHILE THE SUN MAY
STRUGGLE TO PEEK THROUGH THE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY, IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY
PLEASANT DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 50 AND NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA BY MONDAY. THE START OF THE WORK
WEEKS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SOME GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THOUGH FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND IT WILL
HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR THAT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERING. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES ON TUESDAY AS SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THAT WARMING WILL PEAK MIDWEEK AS THE
LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DIP AFTER A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH MODELS ARE FAVORING MORE MILD
CONDITIONS THAN WE HAVE SEEN FROM RECENT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION AND DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING, SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS FOR RISES NEXT WEEK
AS SHOWN IN THE ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS. AS OF NOW, ANY CRESTS
WOULD BE LATE NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY NOT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO MOST OF THE AREA. SOME FINGER
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED WHICH IS BRINGING SOME PATCHY
MVFR CEILINGS TO ITH AND ELM. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK ITS WAY INTO SYR AND RME DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE
LIGHT SHOWERS PRODUCING RESTRICTIONS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/DK
AVIATION...JTC
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