259
FXUS61 KBGM 272339
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
739 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OVERALL, WITH THE
MOST NOTABLE ONE BEING LOW CHANCE POPS EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE TWIN TIERS SATURDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND FLURRIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CHILLY START TO WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
FLURRIES, MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY. SUNDAY WILL TREND
MILDER WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OUT
TO SEA. MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE'LL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND TOMORROW WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS AND A GUSTY BREEZE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, BUT A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN
NEAR -15C OVER CNY ALONG WITH STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVERHEAD, SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR IS
SHOWING ABOUT 50 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NY, SO A FEW
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN
SOME BRIEF LOWER VISIBILITIES. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CAN LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE LATEST CAMS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND PUSHES THEM
FARTHER SOUTH INTO NE PA, SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCREASED
AROUND THE TWIN TIERS AS A START, MAINLY FROM MIDDAY TOMORROW
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO ABOUT A HALF AN
INCH. A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN FAR NW ONEIDA COUNTY CAN SQUEEZE OUT
CLOSER TO AN INCH WITH A BIT OF ENHANCEMENT IN THIS AREA. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, WITH UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNY AND THE CATSKILLS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE 20S.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND THE FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY, IT WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE END TO THE WEEKEND
SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS, MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY, CONFIDENCE
INCREASES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD TUESDAY THEN LOOKS TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADVECTED FROM THE GULF
INTO ANY SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND POTENTIALLY
ENHANCE RAINFALL. WITH THE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO AN
ALREADY WET ENVIRONMENT, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS FOR RISES, WHICH ARE SHOWN IN SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE RIVER
FORECASTS LATER NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND WARMER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE 50S AND 60S WITH SOME AREAS MAKING A RUN
AT THE LOWER 70S. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT
LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST FOR MOST OF OUR SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NY STARTING
TOMORROW MORNING AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SYR AND RME COULD SEE
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/DK
AVIATION...JTC/MPK
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