598
FXUS61 KBGM 281029
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
629 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BOOSTED WINDS AND GUSTS TODAY AND LOWERED
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD TODAY WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL NY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL TREND MILDER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
2) SHOWERS RETURN NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE PICTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY, TRIGGERING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL DROP TO NEAR -15C AT 850 MB LEADING TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME LAKE PLUMES. THE
AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY ALREADY, BUT THESE OTHER FACTORS ALONG WITH
LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL PIVOT THE FLOW MORE TO THE
WEST TONIGHT FOCUSING WHAT'S LEFT OF ANY LAKE SHOW OVER ONEIDA
COUNTY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE
IN MOST LOCATION WITH UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 30S TODAY AND
THEN 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
IN BETWEEN WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS, MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY, BUT THE CONSENSUS IS LEANING ON A
PRIMARILY DRY DAY, FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE INCREASES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR SHOWERS AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. MOST OF OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
DEEP INTO THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A FRONT ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL RH AND CLOUD SIMULATION
FIELDS SUGGESTS A DIRTY WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY.
GENERAL THUNDER SEEMS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THE PROBABILITY FOR CAPE > 500
J/KG IS HIGHEST. SSW FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH THE TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION AS HYDROLOGIC
ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY (10-20%) FOR RIVER AND
STREAM FLOODING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND WARMER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE 50S AND 60S WITH THE LOWER 70S INDICATED IN THE 25TH TO
10TH PERCENTILES IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE SPRING SEE-SAW
TO COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT LATER
IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SYR AND RME COULD SEE MINOR
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND EXPECTED TO DECREASE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...KL
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