772
FXUS61 KBGM 281903
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NW FLOW OFF THE LAKES AND
SUNSHINE INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS.
ALSO INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY WHILE LOWERING
DEWPOINTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD TODAY WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL NY. WARMTH INCREASES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD.
2) SHOWERS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NW FLOW CONTINUES CAA ADVECTION TODAY. A WEAK WAVE PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE FLOW COMBINED WITH LAKE AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HAS KICKED OFF CONVECTIVE POPCORN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE BRINGING STRONG RADIATION
WILL KEEP ANY SNOW THAT FALLS FROM STICKING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE LOOSE SURFACE HEATING, WITH
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKES HAVING SNOW STICK AROUND THE LONGEST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COLD, WITH MANY PLACES
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.
SNOW WILL DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING, WITH A FEW HOURS OF QUIET
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDING THE NE PORTION OF A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES, MOHAWK VALLEY
AND ONEIDA COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, WITH A
TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING SW FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
AND ADVECTING IN SOME MUCH WELCOMED WARMER AIR. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THRU MUCH OF MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE ACTIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ISOBARS STACK UP ACROSS THE
AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ALSO HELP MIX OUT SURFACE MOISTURE, KEEPING
DEWPOINTS LOW AND HELPING TO WARM THE AIR QUICKER. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS REMAIN WARM, WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED WAA, PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO SOME RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SW. TIMING OF THE RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING TOWARDS ONSET SOMETIME IN THE EVENING HOURS. MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WAA WITH EXTREMELY WARM LOWS, AS VALUES
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE US FOR MUCH OF
THE WEAK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN US AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE GULF TO OPEN AND
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL US.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. MOST
OF OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH
OF A FRONT ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE,
(PWATS IN THE 1.0-1.5 RANGE) WITH LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE THANKS
TO MORNING CLOUDS AND RAIN. GENERAL THUNDER SEEMS POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SSW FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE STALLING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE OTHERS CLEAR IT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THE TRENDS HERE NEED TO BE MONITORED AS A FRONT THAT STALLS NEAR
THE AREA WOULD HELP ENHANCE RAIN WED AND THUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, WHILE DRY CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURS IF THE FRONT
CLEARS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THE PRECIP TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS
HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A A LOW PROBABILITY
(10-20%) FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. FLOODING CHANCES WILL INCREASE IF THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA AND SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP IF
WE END UP SEEING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TUES THRU THURS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR VISBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KRME, KITH, AND KBGM. IF A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER
HAPPENS TO IMPACT ONE OF THOSE TERMINALS, VERY BRIEF IFR VISBY
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY MOVE EAST
OF THOSE TERMINALS BY 20Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY).
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS POSSIBLE, BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT LESS THAN 10KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS. THUNDER POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...BJG
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