736
FXUS61 KBGM 111719
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
119 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE
WARM THIS WEEK, WITH A PATTERN THAT WOULD ALSO FAVOR POTENTIAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDER PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH THE REGION, A BREEZY
COOLER DAY STARTS OFF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY.
2) WARM WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK, THOUGH WITH
PASSING DISTURBANCES CAUSING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS. SOME
THUNDER COULD OCCUR AS WELL TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COOLER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE, COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT THAT
BROUGHT ABOUT A TENTH TO QUARTER OF INCH OF RAIN FRIDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE STILL HAVE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FINISHING UP; PERHAPS WITH SOME
SPRINKLES LINGERING JUST AFTER DAWN IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK COURTESY OF LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 15-30 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, FORMING
AHEAD OF INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS WELL AS A STRONG MID-APRIL SUN ANGLE
WILL EVENTUALLY MANAGE TO MIX OUT THAT LAYER ALLOWING FOR A
BRIGHT AFTERNOON. AFTER HIGHS OF UPPER 40S-UPPER 50S TODAY,
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S-MID 30S.
THE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES EAST ON SUNDAY, WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING TO SPREAD AT LEAST INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA IF
NOT EVEN SOME SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS AND LATER IN THE DAY TO EVENING.
WITH HIGH WATER STILL IMPACTING THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND
CAYUGA LAKE IN PARTICULAR, IT IS A GOOD THING THAT AMOUNTS
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. NORTHEAST PA TO
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS ARE UNLIKELY TO GET ANY RAIN AT ALL OUT
OF THAT WARM FRONT. EVEN IN CENTRAL NY, MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY AT FIRST BEFORE ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE COMING WEEK,
INCLUDING WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE OUR WARMEST DAY YET THIS SEASON
BY WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR CHANCES OF OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS, AND PROBABLY EVEN THUNDER TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET GOING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS, LEADING TO A MONDAY ITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WE WILL RESIDE IN
A BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER THE TOP OF A WARM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. NOT ONLY WILL WE HAVE ACCESS TO WARM AIR, BUT
ALSO DISTURBANCES RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES WILL BE PRONE
TO CAUSING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDER. A FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT BE FAR TO OUR NORTH, AND WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY TO SUCCEED DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA, IT WILL FAVOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS VICINITY.
TEMPERATURES UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY, AND BOOST FURTHER
INTO THE MID 70S-MID 80S WEDNESDAY INTO POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
AS WELL, WITH DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY ECLIPSING 60 DEGREES WITH IS
ELEVATED FOR APRIL. WITH DECENT FLOW ALOFT, 35-50 KNOTS IN THE
3-6KM LAYER, AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY BY MIDWEEK; THERE
IS REASON TO BELIEVE THAT A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD
TRAVERSE SOMEWHERE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD; WEDNESDAY IN PARTICULAR. TOO EARLY FOR ANY CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS, BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
ALREADY PLACES PRETTY HIGH ODDS ON EXCEEDING 500 J/KG OF
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY, WITH AT LEAST A
POSSIBILITY OF 1000 J/KG IF FALLING IN THE RIGHT LOCATION WITH
WELL-TIMED WAVE PASSAGES. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS WARM
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, YET STILL LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EVENING, TIMING MAY DIFFER AN HOUR
OR TWO FROM TAFS. WINDS SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY SUNDAY WITH A FEW 20
KNOT OR SO GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR, WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...MWG
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