154
FXUS61 KBGM 112343
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
743 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE INCREASED AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH TUESDAY CURRENTLY HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE
AT STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST BRINGS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TONIGHT,
ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AS WE
WILL SEE PRETTY CONSISTENT SW FLOW. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
ALSO BE ACTIVE, WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL BRING BREEZY NW FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CURRENT CUMULUS STREAMERS OFF THE LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EASTWARD AND
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WITH THE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT BY LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW;
ONLY TOPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF CNY, AND THE LOW TO
MID 50S IN NEPA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND BRINGING VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S, WITH LOCALIZED
MID 20S ACROSS AREAS PRONE TO COLD TEMPS DURING THIS TYPE OF SETUP.
THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SW FLOW AND THE
START OF WAA THAT WILL LAST MOST OF THE WEEK. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES INTO ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AS A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUTTS UP AGAINST THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. GUSTS
UP TO 30MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED SW
WINDS IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN UP TO 20MPH
POSSIBLE AND GUSTS UP TO 35MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT REMAIN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. NON-DIURNAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG WAA ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEK WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EVERY DAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US FROM THE GULF
WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP ON THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL CREATE
A FUNNEL OF WARM AND MOIST AIR THAT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE GULF FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 50S, AND WE ARE EXPECTED HIGHS
MON-FRI TO BE ABOUT 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAY SO
FAR THIS YEAR WILL BE WEDNESDAY, WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
REACH THE MID 80S. TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER, WHILE MONDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
UNFORTUNATELY, THESE WARM TEMPERATURES COME WITH STRINGS ATTACHED AS
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA AS THEY ARE FUNNELED THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE STRONG RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE SE
US. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE LACKING IN SOME
AREAS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS OK AT AROUND 40KTS ON TUESDAY WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE 7C, BUT CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CIN TO
REMAIN, KEEPING CONVECTION ELEVATED AND LIMITING SEVERE
POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE SAME 40KTS OF BULK SHEAR,
BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH
LOWER AS RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED MORNING, LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE MID-WEEK
PARAMETERS DEVELOP.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TOMORROW, THEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WARM
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS YET. WINDS SHIFT SOUTH TOMORROW WITH
INCREASING GUSTS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR, WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...ES
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