427
FXUS61 KBGM 121727
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL LOOKS TO
WARM UP HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE LATER THIS WEEK WITH THE VERY
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRYING SOILS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SE US WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK.
2) POTENTIAL FOR THE PATTERN TO TURN WETTER THIS NEXT WEEK AS
SW FLOW SETS UP WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE GULF.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WITH SW FLOW
STRENGTHENING. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
10C AND LIKELY REMAIN THERE OR HIGHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF 850 TEMPERATURES ABOVE 15C IS GREATER
THAN 50% FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH NEPA CLOSER TO 70% TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH 80+ DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SO THERE IS GOOD CHANCES A LOT OF THE REGION WILL
SEE THEIR FIRST 80 DEGREE READINGS OF THE YEAR. INCREASING DEW
POINTS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM, LIKELY STAYING
50+ FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS WELL WHICH WILL HELP PROGRESS GREEN
UP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THE WARMTH AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE, CHANCES OF RAIN ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR NY. WITH THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SE US SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE WEEK,
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE
OPENING UP FLOW FROM THE GULF. FREQUENT 500 MB SHORTWAVES
PROGRESSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALMOST DAILY STARTING LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FARTHER NORTH HAS THE BETTER CHANCES OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK AS
MANY OF THE MODELS SET UP THE "RING OF FIRE" AROUND THE RIDGE
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE MAX QPF AMOUNTS, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT
HAVE STRIPES OF SEVERAL INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
WEEK BUT THE LOCATION OF THESE STRIPES VARY SO IT IS JUST
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR NOW. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOWER THE
FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO WITH NEPA LIKELY ONLY SEEING SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHENEVER A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVES CAN PASS THROUGH.
AS FAR AS SEVERE CHANCES GO, TUESDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF MLCAPE > 500 J/KG AND SHEAR >
30 KNOTS. ITS ALSO THE DAY WITH THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE SOUNDINGS SO COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. THE REST
OF THE WEEK DOES NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF CAPE PROBABILITIES BUT THE
SHEAR IS THERE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE FREQUENCY STRONG
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER MONDAY MORNING FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR CNY TAF SITES DUE TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SW LLWS IS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING ONCE SURFACE GUSTS DECREASE THIS EVENING. 20 KNOT OR SO
SURFACE WIND GUSTS RESUME AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY... VFR EXPECTED.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/JTC
AVIATION...MWG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page