333
FXUS61 KBGM 130517
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
117 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MUCH OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH WARM AND ACTIVE
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS STARTING TO SHOW
BETTER SIGNALS FOR INCREASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
STEERS MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES INTO OUR AREA, BRINGING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
2) THE INFLUENCE FROM A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE HIGH SLID EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE
CORRESPONDING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXES WILL MOVE EAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, A TROUGH PATTERN IS DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN US, PUTTING SW FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US INTO THE
NE US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO TRAVERSE THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE
US COAST, PUTTING OUR CWA IN THE "RING OF FIRE" AND BRINGING
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE RAIN AND STORMS, WITH LESS INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND
SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR THE REGION. HOW FAR SOUTH THE RAIN AND
STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL DEPEND ON WHEN/IF THE RIDGE
FLATTENS A BIT ALONG IT'S NORTHERN EDGE AND ALLOW 500MB
SHORTWAVES TO PENETRATE SOUTH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 1.5
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES INTO
ONEIDA COUNTY THRU FRIDAY, WITH 0.75 TO 0.25 INCHES SOUTH OF
THIS AREA (AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH). QPF AMOUNTS COULD
SLIDE NORTH OR SOUTH, DEPENDING ON HOW THE RIDGE IS BEHAVING
WHEN THE SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE MODEL
CYCLES, WITH TUESDAY AND NOW WEDNESDAY SHOWING SIGNALS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG NORTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY, WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND
40KTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5C/KM. GUIDANCE IS LESS
CERTAIN ABOUT WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WAS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, INSTEAD SLOWING DOWN THE SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN AND PUSHING IT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WED AM. WITH LESS RAIN IN THE MORNING, WE COULD GET SOME
CLEARING WHICH, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S, WOULD
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. HAZARDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
FOR BOTH TUES AND WED IF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. THE
SEVERE CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES, AS THEY
WOULD NEED TO BRING THEIR ENERGY TO THE REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE. MANY VARIABLES AND DETAILS NEED TO BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT AND CLEAR, BUT SIGNALS ARE THERE TO PREPARE FOR
STRONG STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUES AND/OR WED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN SETUP, HOT AND HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED TO
GET FUNNELED INTO OUR AREA STARTING MONDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE YEAR ARE EXPECTED ON TUES THRU
THURS WITH MANY PLACES HITTING LOW 80S. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THIS WILL
NOT BE A NORMAL SPRING TIME WARMUP AS HUMIDITY IS GOING TO PLAY A
FACTOR, MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE LIKE SUMMER THAN SPRING.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S MONDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TUES THRU THURS. BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT RECOVER AND REMAIN WARM, WITH
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT IS
QUITE WARM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS, WE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE RECORD WARM LOWS FOR OUR 3
CLIMATE SITES (BGM, AVP,SYR) FOR BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 65 THRU THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
VISIBILITIES MUCH. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR TO FUEL ALT CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT RME-SYR BY 16-17Z. GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE LOWER
CEILINGS OUT OF ITH BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT AROUND THE SAME TIMEFRAME.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AND STAY BREEZY
WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS, AND LASTING THROUGH
THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 2000FT AGL
WILL BE 40 TO 50 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...KL
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