641
FXUS61 KBGM 131707
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
107 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACTIVE AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW STEERS MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES INTO OUR AREA,
BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
2) THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG RIDGE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE US WITH NY AND PA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG AND JUST OFF THE SE US COAST,
MOIST FLOW UP INTO OUR REGION OUT OF THE GULF WILL KEEP US WARM.
BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALSO MEANS THAT WE WILL BE
IN AN ACTIVE "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN WITH FREQUENT 500 MB
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH, LEADING TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION EVERY DAY. WITH A LONG
WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ON THE WEST COAST, THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST WITH INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN THERE IS SOME HINTS
AT A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH TRIES TO DIG IN AND BRING IN COOLER
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN. WITH FORECAST LOWS AT ALL 3 OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, RECORD WARM LOWS ARE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW AND OPEN GULF, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. NAEFS AND EPS
TABLES FOR OUR CWA ARE INDICATING THAT THE PWAT ANOMALY MAY BE 2
TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE MID APRIL CLIMATOLOGY, WITH
MODEL MEANS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES. ENSEMBLES HAVE BACKED
OFF SOMEWHAT OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF BUT LOOKING AT
PROBABILITIES OF 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND ALONG THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR STILL
HAS A 30% TO 50% CHANCE. LOOKING AT ODDS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAIN, THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWARD HAVE HIGH
PROBABILITIES(>70%) THOUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY IN NEPA IS A LOW
PROB (<40%) BULLSEYE SO THEY MAY STAY DRIER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THIS EARLY SEASON HEAT AND HUMIDITY, THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEK. RIGHT NOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES. TUESDAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 TO 8 C/KM WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.
CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER 1000 J/KG IN MANY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE WHOLE MIXED LAYER,
IT IS CLOSER TO 250 TO 500 J/KG. SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL
STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE DEPTH OF THE
STORMS AS THE LAPSE RATES ABOVE 500 MB ARE NOT AS STEEP SO THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS RELATIVELY LOW. THERE COULD BE SOME LARGER
HAIL IN STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TUESDAY AS THERE IS STRONG WINDS
NEAR THE EL AND THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. TIMING OF THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS STILL TOUGH TO
PIN DOWN BUT AN AFTERNOON PASSAGE WOULD HELP ALL THE PARAMETERS
LINE UP.
WEDNESDAY IS ALSO LOOKING BETTER WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS HELPING BUMP UP THE CAPE VALUES IN MODELS. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE SHOWING CLOSER TO 1500 J/KG WITH A FEW CAMS THAT GO
OUT FAR ENOUGH, AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. MLCAPE IS ALSO HIGHER,
OVER 500 MB WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT, LIKELY IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT
RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE SO WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF STORMS CAN GET GOING. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH A TRIGGER FOR STORMS AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
IN MODELS CURRENTLY ARE A RESULT OF AN MCS THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY
IN THE PLAINS WHICH ARE ALWAYS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN DAYS IN
ADVANCE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DROP TO MVFR OR FUEL
ALTERNATE REQUIRED AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 12-14Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF DRIER AIR ADVANCES IN FROM THE WEST.
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN A SCATTERED
NATURE AFTER 15Z TUE. WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND BREEZY
WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 16Z TUE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND
RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/JTC
AVIATION...BJT/KL
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