754
FXUS61 KBGM 131813
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
213 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLDER
PATTERN IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.
2) THE WARM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN THIS
WEEKEND AND BE REPLACED BY MUCH COLDER AIR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS CENTERED AROUND THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SETTING UP TODAY AND WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS
LARGELY DEFINED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THE
AIR MASS WITHIN THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID, AND SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE DAYS (AT LEAST)
OF THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN MS VALLEY WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND CO-LOCATED SURFACE LOWS WILL RIDE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST WEAK ONE TODAY HAS PRODUCED ONLY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT AND COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NUMBER OF CONDITIONAL ELEMENTS NEEDED TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WITH A
NUMBER OF MEMBERS INDICATING A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
ROUND FOLLOWED BY A LATER AFTERNOON ROUND OF STORMS. IF THIS
SOLUTION DOES DEVELOP, THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL HIGHLY
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE MORNING CONVECTION CAN EXIT AND ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
SOLUTIONS THAT BRING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND LEAVE CENTRAL NY AND NE PA WITH MINIMAL STORMS. THE
THIRD SOLUTION, HOLDS ALL OF THE CONVECTION OFF UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND PRODUCES THE MOST INTENSE STORMS BETWEEN 5-9 PM.
THE ENVIRONMENT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL CLEARLY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH CLEARING WE CAN REALIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE OF ANYWHERE FROM 500-1500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE AND AROUND 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE, AROUND 6.5 TO 7 DEGC/KM...AND SUPPORTIVE
OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE THREAT OF SOME HAIL. THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP MOISTURE MAY ALSO PRECLUDE THE THREAT OF MICROBURSTS AND
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.
THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF
STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS VERY WEAK AND
THE LACK OF AMPLIFICATION COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT. SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD BE LEFTOVER FROM WESTERN
GREAT LAKES CONVECTION, AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THREAT
FOR ANY LEFTOVER MCS OR MCV FORMATION.
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET
AND LEAVE JUST LINGERING CLOUDS OR LIGHT RAIN AROUND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE IN EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY SFC FRONT/TROUGH LAYING EAST-WEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MOST OF THE DAY ON AND OFF. THE
PRESENCE OF THIS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH AN
AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE (PWS AROUND 1 TO 1.5") COULD LEAD TO A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING CONVECTION WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
WED LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE LOWER AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY,
BUT WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY, THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
COULD BE HEIGHTENED, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS THE MAIN CONCERN LATER IN THE WEEK,
SIMILAR TO THE MESSAGE ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL US BY THURSDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
TO AMPLIFY AND PUSH WARMER, MORE HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL NY AND
NE PA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WED AND THU WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 70S AND 80S...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BY FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 60S AND
70S BEFORE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL REALLY SHIFT TO A COLDER ONE STARTING LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND ROTATE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN VERY COLDER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DROP TO MVFR OR FUEL
ALTERNATE REQUIRED AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 12-14Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF DRIER AIR ADVANCES IN FROM THE WEST.
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN A SCATTERED
NATURE AFTER 15Z TUE. WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND BREEZY
WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 16Z TUE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND
RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
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