321
FXUS61 KBGM 141030
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MORE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS MORNING INTO LATE
MORNING JUST IN CASE THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
2) THE WARM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND
AND BE REPLACED BY MUCH COLDER AIR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH 30+ KNOTS OF SHEAR SO THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING TODAY IS VERY WEEK WITH JUST A SUBTLE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH SO THAT LIKELY WILL NOT BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
THE CONVECTION BUT WILL HELP SUPPLY THE SHEAR (35-45 KNOTS) AND
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM. LOOKING AT WHAT
HAPPENED TODAY IN THE PLAINS, THERE WAS A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS
THAT DEVELOPED IN NW KANSAS THAT HAS DEVELOPED INTO AN MCS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS WAS SOMETHING THAT NO MODELS HAD TODAY AND
EVEN THE 0Z MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO HANDLE ITS EVOLUTION. GIVEN
THAT THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE
PASSING THROUGH TODAY, IT LEADS TO LESS CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS WILL BE TODAY. THE HRRR HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS AN EARLIER LINE AS THE SUBSEQUENT RUNS AFTER THE 0Z RUN
HAVE SLOWLY STARTED TO RESOLVE THE MCS A BIT BETTER. IF THIS
DOES END UP BEING THE CASE, WE MAY HAVE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WHICH WOULD OCCUR BEFORE THE BEST
CAPE DEVELOPMENT AND WOULD HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING
TO A LOWER END POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE SHEAR IN PLACE, A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS TO 50 OR 60 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
LATE MORNING LINE OF STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH EARLY ENOUGH FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH BY THEN, THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MOVING EAST.
TOMORROW IS UNFORTUNATELY A SIMILAR STORY AS TODAY IN REGARDS
TO HOW THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN
WEAK WITH THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
GOING TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MCS'S IN THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. STILL, MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE MORE CAPE TOMORROW (>1000J/KG OF SURFACE
CAPE) AND BETTER SHEAR (>40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) SO IF THE
TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE THAT TRIGGERS THE STORMS IS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.
WE WILL STILL BE IN THIS WARM SW FLOW PATTERN WITH FREQUENT
SHORTWAVES ON THURSDAY. MODELS DO HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND BETTER
FORCING SO THAT LOOKS TO LIMIT CAPE BUT STILL WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED WITH 40+ KNOTS OF SHEAR STILL PRESENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE THIS WARM, EARLY SUMMER LIKE PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND COOLER. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IN GREENLAND
WILL HELP A DEEP LATE SEASON TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST
US. THE GFS AND AIGFS BOTH ARE BRINGING 516 TO 520 DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS WHICH IS WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID TO LATE APRIL.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF <-5C
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH
PROBABILITIES >80% FOR THE REGION AND >95% FOR CNY AND NORTH.
WITH THE GREAT LAKES LIKELY WARMING UP SOME OVER THE REST OF
THIS WEEK, IT IS POSSIBLE THEY WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO GENERATE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH THIS PATTERN. -10C 850 MB TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ARE EVEN GETTING TO NEAR 50% FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND NORTH AND IF THAT OCCURS, OUR DAY TIME HIGHS MAY STAY IN
THE 30S TO LOW 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, THE PATTERN WITH
THE COLD IS LOOKING DRY (OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT) SO DESPITE THE
COLD, A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR THE PATTERN TO CHANGE AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
GREENLAND BLOCKING PATTERN IS ALL OVER THE PLACE BUT A COOLER
STRETCH OF WEATHER IS LIKELY, JUST HOW COLD WILL IT GET IS
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH FOG
CLEARING OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, MAINLY IMPACTING SYR AND RME THOUGH NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS: ONE AROUND MIDDAY AND ANOTHER LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP, THE POTENTIAL FIRST LINE IS
LOOKING LESS POTENT FOR MOST TERMINALS AND SHOULD BE JUST
SHOWERS. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS, THERE MAY BE BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE, AVP LOOKS TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT COULD STILL HAVE A SHOWER
OR TWO PASS OVER LATE TODAY. THE RAIN AND STORMS WILL WRAP UP
THIS EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT, GUIDANCE IS FAVORING LOW CEILINGS AND SOME FOG AT THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. A LOT OF THIS WILL BE BASED ON RAINFALL AS
THE ADDED MOISTURE WOULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO FOG AS OBSERVED
EARLY THIS MORNING. SIMILARLY TO HOW CONDITIONS DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING, FOG WAS ADDED TO SYR AND RME STARTING AROUND 06Z
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WERE ADDED TO ITH, ELM, AND BGM FOR
AROUND THAT SAME TIME.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT WILL PICK UP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO START THE DAY BUT
THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING. PEAK GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BTL
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