861
FXUS61 KBGM 141828
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
228 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE;
OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER RISK FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND PERHAPS EVEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS, ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) THE WARM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH 30+ KNOTS OF SHEAR SO THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SOME
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING TODAY IS VERY WEEK WITH JUST A SUBTLE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH SO THAT LIKELY WILL NOT BE THE MAIN DRIVER
OF THE CONVECTION BUT WILL HELP SUPPLY THE SHEAR (35-45 KNOTS) AND
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM ARE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE BASED CAPE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS ALREADY REACHING 500-1000 J/KG, BUT 100MB
MIXED LAYER CAPE IS MUCH LOWER THUS FAR ONLY 250 TO 500 J/KG. BULK 0-
6KM SHEAR IS INCREASING, AS EXPECTED, NOW BETWEEN 35-45 KTS, WITH
EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR IN THAT SAME RANGE. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWER SOME CUMULUS BUILD UP BEGINNING TO OCCUR, ALONG WITH
BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUD LAYER OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO WESTERN NY AT THIS TIME, THAT WILL LIKELY BE
THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. SPC HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A 2% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR LARGE HAIL UP ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR STORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE FROM
ABOUT 4-8 PM ACROSS OUR CENTRAL NY AREAS...AND A LITTLE LATER, FROM
ABOUT 6-10 PM IN NE PA...THIS IS BASED OFF THE LATEST CAMS SUCH AS
THE 17Z HRRR RUN. OVERNIGHT IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN, UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.
LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING A REMNANT MCS LOOKS TO
APPROACH BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY IS UNFORTUNATELY A SIMILAR STORY AS TODAY IN REGARDS TO
HOW THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN WEAK
WITH THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS GOING TO BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MCS'S IN THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
STILL, MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE MORE CAPE
TOMORROW (>1000J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE) AND BETTER SHEAR (>40 KNOTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR) SO IF THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE THAT TRIGGERS
THE STORMS IS LIKE THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING (IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING), STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA FOR THIS
POTENTIAL, WITH A SLIGHT RISK NEARBY IN CENTRAL PA. THE MAIN
POTENTIAL THREATS WITH WEDNESDAY'S STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS,LARGE HAIL AND TRAINING OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WPC HAS
INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN, AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL STILL BE IN THIS WARM SW FLOW PATTERN WITH FREQUENT
SHORTWAVES ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING, BUT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY ALONG AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE THAT
ULTIMATELY MATERIALIZES, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE MID-70S
TO LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S INSTABILITY COULD AGAIN
REACH MODERATE LEVELS (1000 J/KG +). THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED BETWEEN 40-50 KTS
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE REGION. THE HIGHEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE ACROSS
THE TWIN TIERS DOWN INTO NORTHEAST PA AT THIS TIME, SO THIS MAY BE
THE AREA TO WATCH FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER CONVECTION.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME DOWN SOME, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S TO
MID-70S EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE THIS WARM, EARLY SUMMER LIKE PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND COOLER. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IN GREENLAND WILL HELP A DEEP
LATE SEASON TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST US. THE GFS AND AIGFS
BOTH ARE BRINGING 516 TO 520 DM 500 MB HEIGHTS ON MONDAY WHICH IS
WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ALSO HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF REACHING -12C MONDAY MORNING AND
ONLY GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TOWARD 0C BY TUESDAY. WITH THE GREAT
LAKES LIKELY WARMING UP SOME OVER THE REST OF THIS WEEK, IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS PATTERN, AS TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS
EXCEED 15C FROM THE LAKE SURFACE UP TO THE 850MB LEVEL.
WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE IT APPEARS DAYTIME HIGHS
MAY STAY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ON MONDAY. VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT
THEN APPEARS A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AS OF NOW, THE PATTERN WITH THE COLD IS LOOKING DRY (OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT) SO DESPITE THE COLD, A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT IS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE PATTERN TO CHANGE AS THE
EVOLUTION OF THE GREENLAND BLOCKING PATTERN IS ALL OVER THE PLACE
BUT A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS LIKELY, JUST HOW COLD WILL IT GET
IS UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY. TIMING LOOKS
TO BE IN THE 19-00Z RANGE. INCLUDED TEMPOS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SCATTERED NATURE AND SLIGHT TIMING UNCERTAINITY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES SHARPLY
AFTER 00Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT KRME AND KSYR FOR THE FORMATION OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL AT KITH AND
KBGM. ANY CEILING RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT OUT BETWEEN 12-16Z
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/MJM
AVIATION...MWG
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